Sources
“Archive” links to scans in the Truth Tobacco Industry Documents, “Offsite” to scans on other websites, usually the relevant journal websites.
Who was Philip Burch?
| “the official biography of Sir Richard Doll” | ||
| Conrad Keating, Smoking Kills (Oxford, 2009). | ||
| Not in archive | ||
The inevitable questions
| “I regard compulsive cigarette smoking as a disease” | ||
| Criticisms by P. R. J. Burch of the second draft of appendix to chapter 4 by H. Goldstein and K. Horsfield, p. 3. | ||
| Archive | tid: ajb45d00 | |
Received wisdom
| “the great statistician and geneticist R. A. Fisher” | ||
| Ronald A. Fisher, Smoking: the cancer controversy : some attempts to assess the evidence (Edinburgh, 1959) | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
| “a novel scientific methodology” | ||
| Austin Bradford Hill, The Environment and Disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine 58 (1965), 295-300. | ||
| Archive | tid: jan10j00 | |
Part 1: Medical Physicist
1920-1949
Youth, war and love
| Curriculum vitae Philip R. J. Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: bnc4aa00 | |
| Luigi Gedda, In Memoriam, Philip RJ Burch – 15th April 1920 to 22nd March 1987. | ||
| Archive | tid: whg42a99 | |
| Obituary, Philip Robert James Burch, Annual General Report, Department of Medical Physics, The University of Leeds and Leeds Western Health Authority (1987), 43-4. | ||
| Archive | tid: jwz97a99 | |
| Professor Philip Burch, The Times 62744 (16 April 1987), 20. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| J. E. Burch, M. S. Chesters eds., The Biology of Disease (Leeds, 1985). | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| “the future Jane Burch” | ||
| Obituary: Jane Burch. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
1950-1971
The Roentgen years
| “first whole-body radiation counter” | ||
| F. W. Speirs, Beginnings in Radiation Physics, in J. E. Burch and M. S. Chesters (eds.), The Biology of Disease (Leeds, 1985). | ||
| “founded a family” | ||
| “a change of scene” | ||
| Obituary: Jane Burch. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
Burnet, Burwell and Burch
| “successive appointments” | ||
| Curriculum vitae Philip R. J. Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: bnc4aa00 | |
| “what I felt to be a dead end” | ||
|
Rachel Palmer, The Enthusiasts 8: Professor Philip Burch, Topic of Cancer, GP (25 March 1977), 32 | ||
| Archive | tid: isi55d00 | |
| R. G. Burwell, Growth Control and Autoaggressive Disease, in J. E. Burch and M. S. Chesters (eds.), The Biology of Disease (Leeds, 1985). | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| “pattern of work” | ||
| Rachel Palmer, The Enthusiasts 8: Professor Philip Burch, Topic of Cancer, GP (25 March 1977), 32. | ||
| Archive | tid: isi55d00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, An inquiry concerning growth, disease and ageing (Edinburgh, 1968). | ||
| Not in archive | ||
“To understand cancer”
| “an extrinsic carcinogen” | ||
| P. R. J. Burch, Genetic carrier frequency for lung cancer, Nature 202/4933 (16 May 1964), 711-12 | ||
| Archive | tid: khd74a99 | Offsite (£) |
| “came to revise his views” | ||
| P. R. J. Burch, The Surgeon General’s “epidemiologic criteria for causality”. Reply to Lilienfeld, Journal of Chronic Diseases 37 (1984), 148-156 | ||
| Archive | tid: gms61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, New Approach to Cancer, Nature 225 (7 February 1970), 512-15. | ||
| Autoaggressive theory applied to cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: bhe3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
Part 2: Emergence of a Heretic
Burch at 50
| “media stunts and angry challenges” | ||
| Joel N. Shurkin, Broken genius : the rise and fall of William Shockley, creator of the electronic age (London, 2006). | ||
| Not in archive | ||
1972
Inaugural lecture
| P. R. J. Burch, Can we have absolutely true scientific laws? University of Leeds Review 15 (1972), 204-231. | ||
| An overview of Burch’s thinking on physics and biology. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
The Lancet correspondence
| Carl C. Seltzer, A Critical Appraisal of the Royal College of Physicians’ report on smoking and health, The Lancet 299/7744 (29 January 1972), 243-8. | ||
| A critique of the RCP 1971 report on heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: ohp60a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Does it help to stop smoking? The Lancet 299/7744 (29 January 1972), 238-9. | ||
| An editorial distancing the Lancet from Seltzer’s conclusions. | ||
| Archive | tid: lpc01a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Richard Doll, Smoking and health, The Lancet 299/7745 (5 February 1972), 322. | ||
| Seltzer has already been answered. | ||
| Archive | tid: ttz61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| C. M. Fletcher, Smoking and health, The Lancet 299/7746 (12 February 1972), 386. | ||
| Seltzer only discussed a fraction of the report, and has already been answered. | ||
| Archive | tid: vtz61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Carl C. Seltzer, Smoking and health, The Lancet 299/7750 (11 March 1972), 586-8. | ||
| New data and calculations, Seltzer’s conclusions reaffirmed. | ||
| Archive | tid: suw1aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| Theodor D. Sterling, Report on smoking and health, The Lancet 299/7757 (29 April 1972), 960-1. | ||
| An apparent contradiction in Doll’s claims. Doctors not a representative sample. | ||
| Archive | tid: xit13f00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and health, The Lancet 299/7763 (10 June 1972), 1283. | ||
| Fisher’s constitutional hypothesis. More studies of twins are needed. | ||
| Archive | tid: wug21a00 | Offsite (£) |
| C. M. Fletcher, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7766 (1 July 1972), 42. | ||
| Reply to Burch. Fisher has already been answered. Twins are few and smoking is a practical issue. | ||
| Archive | tid: zit13f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Richard Doll, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7768 (15 July 1972), 131-2. | ||
| Reply to Sterling. Doll has been quoted out of context. | ||
| Archive | tid: tpc01a00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7768 (15 July 1972), 132-3. | ||
| Reply to Fletcher. Importance of refutation. The Four Tides diagram introduced. | ||
| Archive | tid: tpc01a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Helmut R. R. Wakeham, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7771, (5 August 1972), 275-6. | ||
| From the Philip Morris Research Center. Danish and American twin studies. | ||
| Archive | tid: bwi13f00 | Offsite (£) |
| W. H. Cherry and W. F. Forbes, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7781 (14 October 1972), 824-5. | ||
| Friberg’s study of twins criticised. | ||
| Archive | tid: tuq34e00 | Offsite (£) |
| Zdenek Hrubec and Eldon S. Sutton, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7783 (28 October 1972), 932. | ||
| More about the US twins study. | ||
| Archive | tid: icr71d00 | Offsite (£) |
| Lars Friberg, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7784 (4 November 1972), 973. | ||
| To Cherry and Forbes. Friberg had previously supplied allegedly missing data to Forbes privately. | ||
| Archive | tid: xhk67a00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7785 (11 November 1972), 1029. | ||
| To Cherry and Forbes. Burch’s reasoning about twins expounded. | ||
| Archive | tid: tit13f00 | Offsite (£) |
| T. H. Hughes-Davies, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7788 (2 December 1972), 1197. | ||
| A brief note on twins. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| Richard J. Hickey, Evelyn B. Horner and Richard C. Clelland, Smoking, pollution and health, The Lancet 300/7791 (23 December 1972), 1362-3. | ||
| Role of pollution in lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: vbq92f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Christopher Fewtrell, Smoking, pollution and health, The Lancet 300/7791 (23 December 1972), 1363. | ||
| A brief note on twins. | ||
| Archive | tid: vbq92f00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and health, The Lancet 300/7792 (30 December 1972), 1423-4. | ||
| A ‘fuller version of the arguments so far’ under nine headings. | ||
| Archive | tid: ted3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
The Tobacco Research Council and Burch
| G.F.T. [G. F. Todd], Discussion with Professor P. R. J. Burch, Leeds General Infirmary, 30 June 1972. | ||
| Todd’s account of the meeting. | ||
| Archive | tid: brm82a99 | |
| F.J.C.R. [F. J. C. Roe], Report on discussions with Professor P. R. J. Burch at Leeds on 30.6.72 | ||
| Roe’s account of the meeting. | ||
| Archive | tid: shd74a99 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Lung cancer and cigarette smoking, secular trends. | ||
| Draft of a paper to be offered to Nature. | ||
| Archive | tid: znz88b00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, The analysis of cancer statistics with special reference to cigarette smoking and lung cancer. Non-mathematical synopsis. | ||
| A summary of Burch’s views written for Todd and Roe. | ||
| Archive | tid: mlg42a99 | |
Report by Sir Charles Ellis
| Charles Ellis to Geoffrey Todd, 13 July 1972 | ||
| Burch is difficult to understand but not a crank. | ||
| Archive | tid: phd74a99 | |
The Lancet correspondence and new friendships
| Philip Burch to Lars Friberg, 17 October 1972 | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Lars Friberg to Philip Burch, 25 October 1972 | ||
| Thanks for notification about the Lancet correspondence. | ||
| Archive | tid: nwz61f00 | |
| Philip Burch to Lars Friberg, 17 November 1972 | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Lars Friberg to Philip Burch, 6 December 1972 | ||
| Comments on Burch’s draft paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: yso91a00 | |
| Philip Burch to Lars Friberg, 13 December 1972 | ||
| Some of Friberg’s queries answered. | ||
| Archive | tid: xso91a00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Philip Burch, 18 August 1972 | ||
| Burch’s letters to the Lancet accord with Hickey’s views. | ||
| Archive | tid: wme8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 4 September 1972 | ||
| A request for some of Hickey’s papers. | ||
| Archive | tid: ixj07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Philip Burch, 7 September 1972 | ||
| The papers have been forwarded. | ||
| Archive | tid: hxj07c00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 14 September 1972 | ||
| About Burch’s general approach to disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: axj07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Philip Burch, 28 June 1973 | ||
| Burch’s reply to Peto and Mathews was devastating. | ||
| Archive | tid: dqw38e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 2 July 1973 | ||
| Weakness of ‘establishment’ views on the matter. | ||
| Archive | tid: fqw38e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 7 October 1973 | ||
| About the birthweight correspondence. | ||
| Archive | tid: bwe8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 16 November 1973 | ||
| More about smoking in pregnancy. | ||
| Archive | tid: mak07c00 | |
| Carl Seltzer to Philip Burch, 17 July 1972 | ||
| Thanks for the support in the Lancet correspondence. | ||
| Archive | tid: atl68e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 20 July 1972 | ||
| Further developments: Seltzer should keep up the good work. | ||
| Archive | tid: btl68e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 17 November 1972 | ||
| A draft of the Nature paper enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: znz88b00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 13 December 1972 | ||
| Thanks for Seltzer’s comments and copy of a relevant paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: xkb45d00 | |
1973
Heart disease in the New England Journal of Medicine
| Carl C. Seltzer, Smoking and coronary heart disease, New England Journal of Medicine 288/22 (31 May 1973), 1186. | ||
| Lung cancer rates in British doctors have fallen while coronary heart disease rose. Smoking cannot be the cause of both. | ||
| Archive | tid: enk67a00 | Offsite ($) |
| N. J. Wald, S. V. Howard and N. J. Smith, Smoking and coronary heart disease (Cont.), New England Journal of Medicine 289/11 (13 September, 1973), 590. | ||
| Doctors had less CHD than the general population and smoking is not the only cause. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
| George F. Grannis, Smoking and coronary heart disease (Cont.), New England Journal of Medicine 289/11 (13 September, 1973), 591. | ||
| A criticism of Seltzer’s calculations. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
| Carl C. Seltzer, More on smoking and heart disease, New England Journal of Medicine 289/22 (29 November, 1973), 1200-1. | ||
| Wald cannot say what else caused the rise in CHD. Grannis’s criticism answered. | ||
| Archive | tid: ofr56b00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and coronary heart disease (Cont.), New England Journal of Medicine 290/6 (7 February, 1974), 345. | ||
| Seltzer is right. Inadequacy of Wald and Grannis’s analysis. | ||
| Archive | tid: umc4aa00 | Offsite ($) |
The Statistical Subcommittee
| 45th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee to be held at 10.45 a.m. on Tuesday, 18th July, 1972, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. Notes on the Agenda. | ||
| Archive | tid: wrw72a99 | |
| Minutes of the 45th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee of T.R.C. held at 10.45 a.m. on Tuesday, 18th July, 1972, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. | ||
| Material relating to Burch has been circulated. Peter Lee is to study his book An Inquiry into Growth, Disease and Ageing. | ||
| Archive | tid: xrw72a99 | |
| 46th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee to be held at 10.45 a.m. on Wednesday, 11th October, 1972, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. Notes on the Agenda. | ||
| Archive | tid: trw72a99 | |
| Minutes of the 46th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee held at 10.45 a.m. on Wednesday, 11th October, 1972, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. | ||
| Consideration of Burch’s Analysis of Cancer Statistics with Special Reference to Cigarette Smoking is postponed to the next meeting. | ||
| Archive | tid: urw72a99 | |
| 47th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee to be held at 10.45 a.m. on Tuesday, 16th January, 1973, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. Notes on the Agenda. | ||
| Archive | tid: prw72a99 | |
| Minutes of the 47th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee held at 10.45 a.m. on Tuesday, 16th January, 1973, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. | ||
| Lee’s analysis of An Inquiry into Growth, Disease and Ageing and The Analysis of Cancer Statistics is to be consolidated and circulated. | ||
| Archive | tid: qrw72a99 | |
| 48th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee to be held at 10.45 a.m. on Tuesday, 13th March, 1973, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. Notes on the Agenda. | ||
| Archive | tid: mrw72a99 | |
| Minutes of the 48th Meeting of the Statistical Sub-committtee held at 10.45 a.m. on Tuesday, 13th March, 1973, at Glen House, Stag Place, London, S.W.1. | ||
| Consideration of Burch’s papers is to be put into abeyance. | ||
| Archive | tid: nrw72a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Geoffrey Todd, 9 March 1973 | ||
| What progress has the committee made? A request for data on Native Americans. | ||
| Archive | tid: mrr82a99 | |
The Lancet correspondence turns to lung cancer
| J. N. Mehrishi, Smoking, cancer and coronary heart disease, The Lancet 301/7804 (24 March 1973), 666-7. | ||
| Proposed study group to investigate smoking and carcinogenesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: isw2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and cancer, The Lancet 301/7809 (28 April 1973), 939-40. | ||
| To Mehrishi. Cigarette smoke not carcinogenic. The Burch curve introduced. | ||
| Archive | tid: pjk67a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Richard Peto and John Mathews, Smoking and cancer, The Lancet, 301 7812 (19 May 1973), 1126. | ||
| To Burch. Vertical analysis and cohort effects prove the causal theory. | ||
| Archive | tid: ksw2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and cancer, The Lancet, 301 7815 (9 June 1973), 1315-6. | ||
| To Peto. Death rates in old age and the unreliablity of diagnosis. | ||
| Archive | tid: yhk67a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Alwyn Smith, Smoking and cancer, The Lancet, 301 7817 (23 June 1973), 1448. | ||
| Lung cancer rates are a simple function of age. | ||
| Archive | tid: eqw38e00 | Offsite (£) |
| T. J. Cole, Smoking and cancer, The Lancet, 302 7819 (7 July 1973), 49. | ||
| An alleged contradiction in Burch’s claims. | ||
| Archive | tid: osw2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and cancer, The Lancet, 302 7820 (14 July 1973), p.102-3. | ||
| To Smith: sex ratios argue against his claims. To Cole: the ‘contradiction’ explained. | ||
| Archive | tid: gpu04f00 | Offsite (£) |
| J. T. Manning, Smoking and lung cancer, The Lancet, 304/7881 (11 September 1974), 666-667. | ||
| Stress as a possible genetic factor in lung cancer | ||
| Archive | tid: csx2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and lung cancer, The Lancet, 306/7886 (19 October 1974), 950. | ||
| Manning’s genetic hypothesis does not need to invoke stress. | ||
| Archive | tid: dsx2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 16 May 1973 | ||
| Did Lee see Burch’s letter in the Lancet? | ||
| Archive | tid: qns82a99 | |
| Peter Lee to Philip Burch, 31 May 1973 | ||
| Vertical analysis and cohort analysis. Possible explanations of the modal peak in Burch’s graphs. | ||
| Archive | tid: rns82a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 6 June 1973 | ||
| Lee has misunderstood the parameter S. The graphs impossible to reconcile with Doll’s hypothesised power law. | ||
| Archive | tid: ocy82a99 | |
| Peter Lee to Philip Burch, 13 June 1973 | ||
| Burch ought to correct for removal from the population. The modal peak should soon disappear. The data is compatible with Lee’s own hypotheses. | ||
| Archive | tid: qcy82a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 26 June 1973 | ||
| Evidence for widespread misdiagnosis of lung cancer. A power law cannot explain Burch’s data. | ||
| Archive | tid: rcy82a99 | |
| Peter Lee to Philip Burch, 16 July 1973 | ||
| Misdiagnosis. Lee’s own mathematical approach explained. | ||
| Archive | tid: scy82a99 | |
| Richard Peto to Peter Lee, 4 July 1973 | ||
| Comments on Burch in the Lancet | ||
| Archive | tid: lcy82a99 | |
| “pocket chess set” | ||
| Richard Peto to Peter Lee, 4 September 1974 | ||
| Archive | tid: osr82a99 | |
Sir Richard Doll in search of funding
| Richard Doll to Geoffrey Todd, 16 July 1973 | ||
| Can the Tobacco Research Council endow a readership for Richard Peto? | ||
| Archive | tid: snv82a99 | |
Rejection by Nature
| Philip Burch to Geoffrey Todd, 9 March 1973 | ||
| Have the TRC formed an opinion yet? Nature has turned Burch’s paper down. | ||
| Archive | tid: mrr82a99 | |
Yerushalmy, Goldstein and smoking in pregnancy
| Fisher, Neyman, Berkson and Brownlee | ||
| Ronald A. Fisher, Smoking, the cancer controversy : some attempts to assess the evidence (Edinburgh, 1959). | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
| Jerzy Neyman, Statistics – servant of all science, Science 122/3166 (2 September 1955), 401-16. | ||
| Archive | tid: jrw13a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Joseph Berkson, Smoking and cancer of the lung, Proceedings of the Staff Meetings of the Mayo Clinic 35 (1960), 367-85. | ||
| Archive | tid: feq86a00 | |
| K. A. Brownlee, A review of “Smoking and Health”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 60/311 (September 1965), 722-739. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
| J. Yerushalmy, Mother’s cigarette smoking and survival of infant, American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 88/4 (15 February 1964), 505-518. | ||
| Mothers who smoke have more underweight babies, possibly for genetic reasons. Various causal explanations refuted. | ||
| Archive | tid: wji43f00 | Offsite ($) |
| J. Yerushalmy, The Relationship of Parents’ Cigarette Smoking to Outcome of Pregnancy – Implications as to the Problem of Inferring Causation from Observed Associations, American Journal of Epidemiology 93/6 (June 1971), 443-56. | ||
| More causal explanations refuted, including the ‘displacement hypothesis’. | ||
| Archive | tid: ifb20a00 | Offsite ($) |
| J. Yerushalmy, Infants with low birth weight born before their mothers started smoking, American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 112/2 (15 January 1972), 277-84. | ||
| More causal explanations refuted. Evidence for a genetic explanation. | ||
| Archive | tid: dql41a00 | Offsite ($) |
| H. Goldstein, Cigarette smoking and low birthweight babies, American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 114/4 (15 October 1972), 570-1. | ||
| An apparent error in one of Yerushalmy’s calculations. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| J. Yerushalmy, Reply to Mr Goldstein, American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology 114/4 (15 October 1972), 571-3. | ||
| The calculation spelt out at length: it is not in error. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| H. Goldstein, Birthweight and the Displacement Hypothesis, An Analysis of Method, American Journal of Epidemiology 95/1 (January 1972), 1. | ||
| Yerushalmy wrong to reject the displacement hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: idv62f00 | Offsite (free) |
| J. Yerushalmy, The Author Replies, American Journal of Epidemiology 95/1 (January 1972) 2. | ||
| Goldstein’s argument refuted. | ||
| Archive | tid: idv62f00 | Offsite (free) |
| N. R. Butler, H. Goldstein and E. M. Ross, Cigarette Smoking in Pregnancy: its Influence on Birth Weight and Perinatal Mortality, British Medical Journal 2/5906 (15 April 1972), 127-30. | ||
| A case control study confirms the displacement hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: zeu94f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Smoking hazard to the fetus, British Medical Journal 2/5850 (17 February 1973), 369. | ||
| Editorial. There is now no reasonable doubt that smoking in pregnancy is harmful. | ||
| Archive | tid: jev62f00 | Offsite (free) |
| R. J. Hickey, E. B. Harner and R. C. Clelland, Smoking hazards to the fetus, British Medical Journal 3/5878 (1 September 1973), 501. | ||
| Correction Smoking hazards to the fetus, British Medical Journal 3/5880 (8 September 1973) 552 | ||
| The editorial ignores the work of Yerushalmy. Correlation is not causation. Importance of refutation in science. | ||
| Archive | tid: nie21a00 | Offsite (free) |
| Offsite (free) | ||
| Euan M. Ross, N. R. Butler and H. Goldstein, Smoking hazards to the fetus, British Medical Journal 4/5883 (6 October 1973), 51. | ||
| The question is still unsettled. Yerushalmy has been refuted by Goldstein. | ||
| Archive | tid: edo78e00 | Offsite (free) |
| Smoking, pregnancy and publicity, Nature 245/5420 (14 September 1973), 61. | ||
| Editorial. Goldstein’s remarks in Concern are not substantiated by his BMJ paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: eld84e00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking, pregnancy and publicity, Nature 245/5423 (5 October 1973), 277. | ||
| The editorial welcome. Yerushalmy not refuted. | ||
| Archive | tid: cfv62f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Harvey Goldstein, Smoking, pregnancy and publicity, Nature 245/5423 (5 October 1973), 277. | ||
| Goldstein did not claim to prove causation. The evidence is strong enough to act on. | ||
| Archive | tid: cfv62f00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and pregnancy, Nature 246/5429 (16 November, 1973), 177. | ||
| Goldstein repeated his claims after two refutations by Yerushalmy. Goldstein’s dual standards. | ||
| Archive | tid: hgm31a99 | Offsite (£) |
| Richard J. Hickey, David E. Boyce, Richard C. Clelland and Evelyn B. Harner, Smoking and pregnancy, Nature 246/5429 (16 November, 1973), 177-8. | ||
| Yerushalmy refuted Goldstein, whose appeal to ethics is subjective and whose reasoning ignores self-selection. | ||
| Archive | tid: hgm31a99 | Offsite (£) |
| Bea J. van den Berg, Smoking and pregnancy, Nature 246/5432 (21/28 December 1973), 540. | ||
| Death of Yerushalmy. | ||
| Archive | tid: jih45a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Harvey Goldstein, Smoking, pregnancy and publicity, Nature 246/5432 (21/28 December 1973), 540. | ||
| Other evidence against Yerushalmy. Smoking an ethical, not a scientific, issue. | ||
| Archive | tid: jih45a00 | Offsite (£) |
| N. R. Butler and H. Goldstein, Smoking in Pregnancy and Subsequent Child Development, British Medical Journal 4/5892 (8 December 1973), 573-5. | ||
| A new study of the effects of parental smoking on children. The harmfulness of smoking in pregnancy now accepted: see the BMJ editorial. | ||
| Archive | tid: hfv62f00 | Offsite (free) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking hazard to the fetus, British Medical Journal 1/5896 (5 January 1974), 40. | ||
| The BMJ editorial not evidence. Goldstein again ignores Yerushalmy and forgets his concession in the Nature correspondence. | ||
| Archive | tid: kfv62f00 | Offsite (free) |
| “causationists such as Todd” | ||
| G. F. Todd, Comments on Chapters 1-6 and 8-9 of the Report on Smoking and Health of the Royal College of Physicians, 4 | ||
| Archive | tid: xap72a99 | |
Yerushalmy and self-selection
| J. Yerushalmy, On inferring causality from observed associations, in F. J. Ingelfinger, A. S. Reiman and M. Finland (eds.) Controversy in internal medicine (Philadelphia, 1966) 659-668. | ||
| Problems in the application of statistics to epidemiology, including self-selection, illustrated from studies such as Seltzer on cigarette smoking and physique. | ||
| Archive | tid: kni92f00 | |
| J. Yerushalmy, Self-selection—a major problem in observational studies, in Proceedings of the Sixth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Volume 4: Biology and Health (Berkeley, 1972) 329–342. | ||
| The problem of self-selection illustrated from Ancel Keys’s Six Countries study of coronary heart disease and Yerushalmy’s work on low birthweight babies. | ||
| Archive | tid: kkg72f00 | <a href="http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200514474" |
Health warnings
| P. R. J. Burch, Government health warning on cigarette packages, The Lancet 302/7830 (22 September 1973), 682. | ||
| It has not been proved that “Cigarettes are our biggest killers”. | ||
| Archive | tid: row2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
At the Eugenics Society
Toward perfect man
| Roger Lewin, Towards perfect man, New Scientist 50/866 (4 October, 1973), 38-9. | ||
| A meeting of the Eugenics Society which was addressed by Philip Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: rjt2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| P. R. J. Burch, What limits the lifespan? in B. Benjamin, P. R. Cox and J. Peel (eds.) Population and the New Biology (London and New York, 1974), 31-56. | ||
| The main barrier to longer lifespans is now degenerative and malignant disease, and victory is not assured. | ||
| Archive | tid: rqk30g00 | |
| “every known member” | ||
| Offsite (free) | ||
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 11 October 1973 | ||
| Lewin’s report enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: qjt2aa00 | |
1974
Burch and Doll: the New Scientist exchange
| Bernard Dixon, Propaganda and Integrity, New Scientist 61/458-463 (21 February 1974), 50. | ||
| Editorial. Competing claims of health education and scientific debate. Goldstein’s double standards. | ||
| Archive | tid: yau62f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch, Does Smoking cause lung cancer? New Scientist 61/886 (21 February 1974), 458-63. | ||
| Burch’s case expounded for a general audience. | ||
| Archive | tid: yze32a99 | Offsite (free) |
| Richard Doll, Smoking, lung cancer and Occam’s razor, New Scientist 61/886 (21 February 1974), 463-7. | ||
| Five points in Burch’s argument disputed and orthodoxy restated. | ||
| Archive | tid: yml94f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: Burch’s reply, New Scientist 61/887 (28 February 1974), 559-560. | ||
| The five points considered and Doll’s arguments rejected. | ||
| Archive | tid: qau88e00 | Offsite (free) |
Correspondence in New Scientist
| A. C. L. Mackie, Smoking and lung cancer, New Scientist 61/888 (7 March, 1974), 643. | ||
| The advice about smoking in pregnancy was not fanaticism. | ||
| Archive | tid: krf2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| C. M. Fletcher and K. Ball, Smoking and lung cancer, New Scientist 61/888 (7 March, 1974), 643. | ||
| Dixon irresponsible to publish Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: krf2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Editor [Bernard Dixon], Smoking and lung cancer, New Scientist 61/888 (7 March, 1974), 643. | ||
| To ignore dissent is unscientific. | ||
| Archive | tid: krf2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| C. Auerbach, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist 61/889 (14 March, 1974), 711. | ||
| Does Burch deny the correlation between smoking and cancer? | ||
| Archive | tid: lxv61f00 | Offsite (free) |
| J. W. Dale, J. L. Roberts, H. Goldstein and N. R. Butler, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist (14 March, 1974), 711. | ||
| Proposed study of anti-smoking publicity. | ||
| Archive | tid: lxv61f00 | Offsite (free) |
| J. R. James, Burch on smoking, New Scientist 61/890 (21 March, 1974), 774-5. | ||
| Burch makes unwarranted assumptions. | ||
| Archive | tid: mxv61f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Stanley Alderson, Burch on smoking, New Scientist 61/890 (21 March, 1974), 775. | ||
| The increase in lung cancer is largely an artefact, and stress may be the cause. | ||
| Archive | tid: mxv61f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist 61/891 (28 March, 1974), 837. | ||
| To Auerbach. Of course Burch accepts the correlation. Fisher’s hypothesis restated. | ||
| Archive | tid: mow2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist 62/892 (4 April, 1974), 41. | ||
| To James. Burch does not make the supposed assumptions. The stress hypothesis difficult to test. | ||
| Archive | tid: oow2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| C. Auerbach, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist 62/893 (11 April, 1974), 90. | ||
| Fisher’s hypothesis is purely theoretical and untestable. | ||
| Archive | tid: frx2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist 62/895 (25 April, 1974), 195. | ||
| Auerbach needs to read Fisher. The scientific method restated. | ||
| Archive | tid: kow2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Carl C. Seltzer, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist 62/895 (25 April, 1974), 195-6. | ||
| A calculation by Seltzer in Medical Counterpoint confirms Burch’s claim about lung cancer rates and refutes Doll’s claim in his second article. | ||
| Offsite (free) | ||
| C. Auerbach, Smoking and lung cancer, New Scientist 62/897 (9 May, 1974), 346. | ||
| How offensive! Three questions. | ||
| Archive | tid: nrx2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch, Smoking and cancer, New Scientist 62/899 (23 May, 1974), 503-4. | ||
| No offence was intended. 1. No. 2. No. 3. Yes. | ||
| Archive | tid: vrx2aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Carl C. Seltzer, Cigarette smoking and longevity in the elderly, Medical Counterpoint (February 1974), 29-33. | ||
| Doll and Pike’s data on British doctors examined for trends in men aged over 64. | ||
| Archive | tid: vud33e00 | |
Correspondence with Congressman Richardson Preyer
| Richardson Preyer to Philip Burch, 10 April 1974 | ||
| Support for Burch’s views and a proposal to establish a commission on smoking and health. | ||
| Archive | tid: czq94e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richardson Preyer, 19 April 1974 | ||
| Weakness of established views on the issue, difficulty of finding suitable scientists to serve on the commission. | ||
| Archive | tid: aph08e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richardson Preyer, 6 February 1975 | ||
| A proposal to meet during Burch’s forthcoming visit to the USA. | ||
| Archive | tid: ygf19a00 | |
At the Society of Occupational Medicine
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer 29 July 1974 | ||
| An account of the meeting, together with other news and views. | ||
| Archive | tid: umt10a00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Problems in the interpretation of cancer statistics with special reference to lung cancer, Journal of the Society of Occupational Medicine 25 (1975), 2-10. | ||
| Burch’s first presentation of his ideas in a scientific journal. | ||
| Archive | tid: wgz88b00 | Offsite (£) |
Publication in Tabak-Journal
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and disease, problems of interpretation, Tabak-Journal, 1975. | ||
| A short summary of evidence disconfirming the causal hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: pow64e00 | |
Framingham and self-selection
| Tavia Gordon, William B. Kannel and Daniel McGee, Death and coronary attacks in men after giving up cigarette smoking, The Lancet 304/7893 (7 December 1974), 1345-8. | ||
| The Framingham study shows that men who give up cigarette smoking halve their risk of CHD. | ||
| Archive | tid: dss10a00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Death and coronary attacks after giving up smoking, The Lancet 304/7896 (28 December 1974), 1564. | ||
| Gordon ignores the problem of self-selection. The Framingham study is not randomised. | ||
| Archive | tid: smc4aa00 | Offsite (£) |
1975
| L. H. Opie, Sudden death and sport, The Lancet 305/7901 (1 February 1975), 263-6. | ||
| A paper identifying some risk factors for sudden death in sportsmen. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| T. Khosla, Sudden death and sport, The Lancet 305/7903 (15 February 1975), 395. | ||
| Those over 30 should not be thought too old for sport. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| Malcolm Carruthers, Peter Nixon and Alistair Murray, Safe sport, The Lancet 305/7904 (22 February 1975), 447. | ||
| A study shows that exercise seems to lower the risk of heart disease. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| L. H. Opie, Sudden death and sport, The Lancet 305/7908 (22 March 1975), 678. | ||
| Opie did not mean to deter the public from taking exercise, though it may not be appropriate to those who have established heart disease. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| Risteard Mulcahy and Noel Hickey, Risk factors after coronary thrombosis, The Lancet 305/7920 (14 June 1975), 1337. | ||
| Opie questions the benefits of risk factor intervention but the authors have demonstrated them in previous work. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Risk factors after coronary thrombosis, The Lancet 306/7923 (5 July 1975), 30. | ||
| The authors ignore self-selection and assume that ‘risk factors’ are causes. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| “the zeal of the convert” | ||
| Sandy Rovner, Health talk: prevention, Washington Post 14 November 1980, D5 1 | ||
| Archive | tid: oto74b00 | Offsite ($) |
Lee reports
| P.N.L. [P. N.Lee], A critical review of the theory of Professor P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Evidence for the causal and consitutional hypotheses summarised and weighed up. | ||
| Archive | tid: iho59d00 | |
| P. N. Lee, Notes on a meeting with Dr. H. MacDonald held in Leeds on 31 December, 1974 | ||
| A glimpse of Burch in conversation. | ||
| Archive | tid: yxy72a99 | |
Burch in Michigan
| Philip Burch to Richardson Preyer, 16 February 1975 | ||
| A forthcoming visit to the USA. Can Preyer meet Burch? | ||
| Archive | tid: ygf19a00 | |
New smoking products
| Evaluation of new smoking products, The Lancet 305/7907 (15 March 1975), 618-19. | ||
| Editorial. Animal testing seems to show that the New Smoking Mixture is less dangerous than cigarettes. | ||
| Archive | tid: fsx2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Evaluation of new smoking products, The Lancet,305/7910 (5 April 1975), 797. | ||
| The dangers of cigarettes have still not been proved. | ||
| Archive | tid: gsx2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| W. J. Harrison, New smoking products, The Lancet 305/7912 (19 April 1975), 917. | ||
| Burch’s claims disputed. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| P. R. J. Burch, New smoking products, The Lancet 305/7914 (3 May 1975), 1040. | ||
| Smoking increases morbidity from bronchitis but not necessarily mortality. | ||
| Archive | tid: jsx2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
Another rejection by Nature
| Peter Newmark to Philip Burch, 29 September 1975 | ||
| Burch’s paper has been rejected by expert reviewers. | ||
| Archive | tid: nvm78e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Newmark, 3 October 1975 | ||
| A request for the reviewers’ comments. | ||
| Archive | tid: dvm78e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 3 October 1975 | ||
| The Times correspondence, the Nature rejection and an approach from the RCP. | ||
| Archive | tid: ivm78e00 | |
Seltzer at Leeds
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 20 October 1975 | ||
| Arrangements for Seltzer’s visit and lecture. | ||
| Archive | tid: kdb45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 14 November 1975 | ||
| Congratulations on a successful lecture. | ||
| Archive | tid: zrs10a00 | |
| Philip Burch to Frederick Stare, 2 December 1975 | ||
| A glowing report on Seltzer and his lecture. | ||
| Archive | tid: awm78e00 | |
The Need to Know
| Smoking and health: The need to know | ||
| Transcript of interviews for a tobacco industry film including one with Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: akh30c00 | |
| Ari-Gem Productions,Tobacco Institute, The Answers We Seek | ||
| A version of the film, with a brief clip of Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: aar91f00 | |
Part 3: In the spotlight
Publicity for The Biology of Cancer
Headlines
| Gordon Broome, ‘Smoking may not kill’ storm, The Sun 19 August 1975 | ||
| Burch’s sensational claims. | ||
| Archive | tid: ftz61f00 | |
| Tom Brown, Smoking: does anyone know the truth, The Daily Express, 20 August 1975 | ||
| Burch’s sensational claims. | ||
| Archive | tid: xtf21a00 | |
| Ronald Bedford, Cancer ‘jury’ to decide, The Daily Mirror, 21 August 1975 | ||
| Burch’s sensational claims to be referred to the Hunter Committee. | ||
| Archive | tid: cyq34e00 | |
| World Cable Service, Smoking link to cancer queried, The Daily Telegraph 20 August 1975 | ||
| Burch’s claims. | ||
| Archive | tid: cvb85e00 | |
Controversy in The Times
Exchange with William Rees-Mogg
| Neville Hodgkinson, Evidence that cigarettes cause cancer inadequate, professor claims, The Times, 59477 (18 August 1975), 2. | ||
| A journalistic account of Burch’s views. | ||
| Archive | tid: vtf21a00 | |
| M. G. P. Stoker, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59480 (21 August 1975), 13. | ||
| Cigarette smoke is mutagenic and therefore causes cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: ged3aa00 | |
| C. M. Fletcher and Keith Ball, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59480 (21 August 1975), 13. | ||
| Burch ignores the great weight of positive evidence against cigarettes. | ||
| Archive | tid: ged3aa00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59485 (27 August 1975), 11. | ||
| Reasons to believe that cigarette smoke is not mutagenic. Burch has examined a huge body of evidence and found nothing that refutes Fisher. | ||
| Archive | tid: gfn70a99 | |
| Herbert Dingle, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59485 (27 August 1975), 11. | ||
| The fact that Burch is in a minority does not make him wrong. | ||
| Archive | tid: gfn70a99 | |
| Richard Doll and Richard Peto, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59489 (1 September 1975), 11. | ||
| Five reasons to reject Burch’s views. | ||
| Archive | tid: gjt2aa00 | |
| J. H. Edwards, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59505 (19 September 1975), 15. | ||
| The evidence against smoking is a kind of net, not a chain with a weakest link. | ||
| Archive | tid: kvm78e00 | |
| J. R. James, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59505 (19 September 1975), 15. | ||
| The Burch-Fisher theory is unfalsifiable and therefore unscientific. | ||
| Archive | tid: kvm78e00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer, The Times 59520 (7 October 1975), 13. | ||
| The net theory of evidence is nonsense. Fisher’s theory is falsifiable by various tests. | ||
| Archive | tid: lvm78e00 | |
| Donald Gould, Smoke Battle, New Scientist 67/965 (4 September 1975), 514. | ||
| Burch’s book has appeared: he is not a crank but caution should prevail. | ||
| Archive | tid: dgz88b00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch to William Rees-Mogg, 29 September 1975 | ||
| A request for a further reply to his critics. | ||
| Archive | tid: avm78e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Conrad Seltzer, 3 October 1975 | ||
| No reply from Rees-Mogg. An approach from the RCP. | ||
| Archive | tid: ivm78e00 | |
| Neville Hodgkinson to Philip Burch, 8 October 1975 | ||
| Congratulations on the letter being published. | ||
| Archive | tid: pum78e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Conrad Seltzer, 9 October 1975 | ||
| The Times has relented. | ||
| Archive | tid: jdb45d00 | |
| William Rees-Mogg to Philip Burch, 9 October 1975 | ||
| Burch has been given the last word on this occasion. | ||
| Archive | tid: zum78e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Conrad Seltzer, 14 October 1975 | ||
| Burch did Rees-Mogg an injustice. Hodgkinson and Mehrishi. | ||
| Archive | tid: yum78e00 | |
| Neville Hodgkinson, No proof smoking causes heart disease, expert says, The Times 59554 (17 November 1975), 4. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Neville Hodgkinson, Professor challenges Government warnings against lung cancer, The Times 59692 (30 April 1976), 6. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Neville Hodgkinson, Warning to smokers not to expect safe cigarettes, The Times 59832 (12 October 1976), 17. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
Correspondence with the Minister of State for Health
| Neville Hodgkinson, Scientists to study new smoking theory, The Times 59482 (23 August 1975) 2 | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| First Report of the Independent Scientific Committee on Smoking and Health. Chairman: Dr R.B. Hunter, M.D., LL.D., F.R.C.P., F.R.S.Ed. | ||
| A report on the testing of tobacco substitutes. | ||
| Archive | tid: yaw57a00 | |
| Philip Burch to David Owen 1 September 1975 | ||
| Burch is sceptical about committees. Burch’s views and possible tests of them. | ||
| Archive | tid: rum78e00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and cancer, criticisms by Professor P. R. J. Burch of the Hunter Committee report to the Minister of State (Health) | ||
| Rebuttal of a report rejecting Burch’s views. | ||
| Archive | tid: ljb45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to David Owen 2 February 1976 | ||
| Burch has received a copy of the Hunter Committee’s statement about him and encloses a rebuttal. | ||
| Archive | tid: kjb45d00 | |
Approaches from the Royal College of Physicians
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 3 October 1975 | ||
| Proposed discussions with the Royal College of Physicians | ||
| Archive | tid: ivm78e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Sir Cyril Clarke, 13 November 1975 | ||
| Thanks for the invitation: discussion should follow a written exchange. | ||
| Archive | tid: ydd3aa00 | |
| Cyril Clarke to Philip Burch, 18 November 1975 | ||
| A proposal is in the works. | ||
| Archive | tid: ikb45d00 | |
| Cyril Clarke to Philip Burch, 25 November 1975 | ||
| A proposal to exchange drafts of the forthcoming RCP report and Burch’s book. | ||
| Archive | tid: dkb45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to Cyril Clarke, 28 November 1975 | ||
| The exchange accepted. | ||
| Archive | tid: ekb45d00 | |
| H. Goldstein and K. Horsfield, Appendix to chapter 4 The statistical controversy on the relation between smoking and lung cancer | ||
| Draft of a critique of Burch proposed for inclusion in the report. | ||
| Archive | tid: gbp72a99 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Criticisms by P. R. J. Burch of the second draft of appendix to chapter 4 by H. Goldstein and K. Horsfield | ||
| Burch’s reply to the critique. | ||
| Archive | tid: ajb45d00 | |
| Cyril Clarke to Philip Burch, 31 December 1975 | ||
| The reply has been forwarded to Goldstein and Horsfield. | ||
| Archive | tid: djb45d00 | |
Christmas at Cambridge
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 15 January 1976 | ||
| A family Christmas. | ||
| Archive | tid: cjb45d0 | |
1976
Clarke passes the buck
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 15 January 1976 | |||
| A paper by Seltzer, Christmas, Clarke’s letter and Burch’s book. | |||
| Archive | tid: cjb45d00 | ||
| Charles Fletcher to Philip Burch, 14 January 1976 | |||
| Invitation to a seminar with Richard Peto at Hammersmith in May. A reply from Goldstein and Horsfield promised. | |||
| Archive | tid: fjb45d00 | ||
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 16 January 1976 | |||
| The invitation accepted on condition of an advance copy of Peto’s paper. | |||
| Archive | tid: gjb45d00 | ||
| G. F. Todd, Report on Smoking and Health by the Royal Colleges | |||
| Report on the state of the draft report as of 5 January. Goldstein and Horsfield considering Burch’s reply. | |||
| Archive | tid: wmi32a99 | ||
| G. F. Todd, Round-up on Report by Royal Colleges | |||
| The state of the draft report as of 5 February. Plans for the Hammersmith seminar. | |||
| Archive | tid: kli32a99 | ||
| Philip Burch to Cyril Clarke, 10 March 1976 | |||
| Burch has received nothing from Goldstein or Horsfield. | |||
| Archive | tid: ijb45d00 | ||
| Philip Burch to Cyril Clarke, 26 March 1976 | |||
| Burch now assumes that no reply will be forthcoming. | |||
| Archive | tid: yjb45d00 | ||
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 26 March 1976 | |||
| Burch now assumes that no reply will be forthcoming. | |||
| Archive | tid: xjb45d00 | ||
Ireland, January 1976
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 26 January 1976 | ||
| A lecture trip to Dublin and Belfast. | ||
| Archive | tid: pjb44e00 | |
Nicholas Wald and his smoking machine
| Nicholas J. Wald. Mortality from lung cancer and coronary heart-disease in relation to changes in smoking habits, The Lancet 307/7951 (17 January 1976), 136-8. | ||
| Falling rates of lung cancer and rising rates of coronary heart disease can be explained by the introduction of filter cigarettes. | ||
| Archive | tid: ldh86a99 | Offsite (£) |
| Geoffrey Myddleton, Mortality from lung cancer, The Lancet 307/7962 (3 April 1976), 740-1. | ||
| Wald’s conclusions about lung cancer in women challenged. | ||
| Archive | tid: skx61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Carl C. Seltzer, Mortality from lung cancer, The Lancet 307/7962 (3 April 1976), 741. | ||
| Wald ignores the transition from ICD7 to ICD8. An alternative analysis casts doubt on his results. | ||
| Archive | tid: skx61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Niri Orlien, Mortality from lung cancer, The Lancet 307/7962 (3 April 1976), 741-2. | ||
| Criticism of Wald’s experimental design. | ||
| Archive | tid: skx61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| N. Wald, Mortality from lung cancer, The Lancet 307/7962 (3 April 1976), 742. | ||
| Myddleton relies on a small sample of American women. Seltzer’s alternative analysis is misleading. Orlien has been answered in new work. | ||
| Archive | tid: skx61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Mortality from coronary heart disease, The Lancet 307/7969 (22 May 1976), 1126-1127. | ||
| A defence of Seltzer. Wald selectively cites data which suits his case. | ||
| Archive | tid: uyl85e00 | Offsite (£) |
Publication and reception of The Biology of Cancer
| P. R. J. Burch, The Biology of Cancer: A New Approach (Lancaster, 1976) | ||
| Burch’s general theory of cancer as autoaggressive disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: msd91f00 | |
| A. Munro Neville, The biology of cancer, British Medical Journal 1/6019 (15 May 1976), 1216. | ||
| Burch’s theory of cancer needs to be subjected to experimental proof and has not been. Experimental data actually shows that somatic mutation is not involved in cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: mac3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| N. E. Day, The biology of cancer, New Scientist 69/993 (25 March 1976), 704. | ||
| Burch ignores the growing evidence that cancer is largely the result of environmental carcinogens. | ||
| Archive | tid: nac3aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| The biology of cancer, The Lancet 307/7960 (20 March 1976), 617. | ||
| Burch’s five-parameter model will fit any data and he ignores environmental carcinogens. | ||
| Archive | tid: jtw2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| Theory in medicine, World Medicine (5 May 1976). | ||
| Burch’s aim is to equip medicine with the general theoretical framework which it sorely lacks. | ||
| Archive | tid: njb45d00 | |
Israel, April 1976
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 13 April 1976 | ||
| A lecture trip to Israel. Plans for a conference at Zurich. | ||
| Archive | tid: zer56b00 | |
Switzerland, April 1976
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: a causal connexion? in Verband der Zigarettenindustrie (ed.), Rauchen im wissenschaftlichen Meinungsstreit. Internationales Symposion, April 29-30 1976 (Ruschlikon/Zurich, 1977) | ||
| The text of a conference paper delivered in Zurich in 1976. A very accessible account of Burch’s ideas on smoking and lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: vua66b00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 10 May 1976 | ||
| Return from Switzerland. Account of the Hammersmith seminar. | ||
| Archive | tid: ojb45d00 | |
Confrontation at Hammersmith
| P. N. Lee, Smoking and lung cancer, Talks by Prof. P. R. J. Burch and Mr. R. Peto at the Hammersmith Hospital, 6th May 1976 | ||
| Lee’s account of the Hammersmith seminar. | ||
| Archive | tid: iku02a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 10 May 1976 | ||
| Burch’s account of the Hammersmith seminar. | ||
| Archive | tid: ojb45d00 | |
The Burch-Fletcher correspondence
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 29 June 1976 | ||
| Discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: fov32d00 | |
| Charles Fletcher to Philip Burch, 6 July 1976 | ||
| Discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: zib45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 19 July 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: bey38e00 | |
| Charles Fletcher to Philip Burch, 30 July 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: wib45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 5 August 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: xib45d00 | |
| Charles Fletcher to Philip Burch, 15 September 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. Fletcher’s impatience with Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: qib45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 29 September 1976 | ||
| Burch’s determination to subject the causal theory to the falsificationist method. | ||
| Archive | tid: rib45d00 | |
The BMJ announces the new line
| Lung cancer and smoking: is there proof? British Medical Journal 2/6033 (21 August, 1976), 439-40. | ||
| The current case against smoking, based on Richard Peto’s remarks in debate with Burch in May 1976. Criticises Burch by name. | ||
| Archive | tid: hgm31a99 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 26 August 1976 | ||
| The editorial enclosed. Helsinki and St Petersburg (Leningrad). | ||
| Archive | tid: oib45d00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Lung cancer and smoking: is there proof? British Medical Journal 2/6036 (11 September, 1976), 640. | ||
| The new emphasis on sex ratios is based on a superficial and incomplete analysis. The problems of self-selection and misdiagnosis have still not been addressed. | ||
| Archive | tid: kpw2aa00 | Offsite (£) |
Finland, August 1976
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 26 August 1976 | ||
| A lecture trip to Helsinki and excursion to St Petersburg (Leningrad). | ||
| Archive | tid: oib45d00 | |
Exchange with Julian Peto
| J. Peto, The biology of cancer. A new approach, British Journal of Cancer 34/3 (September 1976), 304-5. | ||
| Burch’s explanation of lung cancer is Procrustean and relies on the ‘smoking paradoxes’. An argument from sex-ratios is evidence for the causal theory. | ||
| Archive | tid: tsz61f00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, The biology of cancer. A new approach, British Journal of Cancer.35/3 (March 1977), 388-9. | ||
| Peto only considers a few pages of the book. His argument from sex ratios does not predict observed rates of lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: mib45d00 | Offsite (£) |
| J. Peto, The biology of cancer. A new approach, British Journal of Cancer 35/3 (March 1977), 89-90. | ||
| Burch’s predicted rates of lung cancer challenged with different assumptions about misdiagnosis. | ||
| Archive | tid: iib45d00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, The biology of cancer. A new approach, British Journal of Cancer 35/4 (April 1977), 509-10. | ||
| Peto’s new assumptions contradict previous claims and he does not address Burch’s evidence about time lags. The autoaggressive theory defended against Peto’s remarks. | ||
| Archive | tid: jib45d00 | Offsite (£) |
| J. Peto, The biology of cancer. A new approach, British Journal of Cancer 35/4 (April 1977), 510. | ||
| Three points in Burch’s reply controverted. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
The Doctors’ Study at 20 years
| Richard Doll and Richard Peto, Mortality in relation to smoking: 20 years observations on male British doctors. British Medical Journal 2/6051 (25 December, 1976) 1525-36 | ||
| The case against smoking is confirmed by new data from the Doctors’ study. | ||
| Archive | tid: jbk92f00 | Offsite (free) |
1977
That lethal weed
| That lethal weed, British Medical Journal 2/1522 (25 December, 1976), 1522. | ||
| Acclaims the new Doll-Peto paper. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and health, British Medical Journal 1/6054 (15 January 1977), 165. | ||
| Doll and Peto rely on an illegitimate comparison of doctors with the general population. | ||
| Archive | tid: aiw02i00 | Offsite (£) |
The challenge of cancer
| P. R. J. Burch, The challenge of cancer, University of Leeds Review 20 (1977), 35-54. | ||
| The autoaggressive theory of cancer. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
New health warnings
| David Loshak, Anti-smoking statistics attacked, Daily Telegraph 14 March 1977. | ||
| Proposed new health warnings criticised by Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: wdy38e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 16 March 1977 | ||
| A cutting of Loshak’s report enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: vdy38e00 | |
Rejection by the Lancet: exchange with Sharp
| D. W. Sharp to Philip Burch, 14 April 1977 | ||
| “The Oxford workers” have recommended rejection of Burch’s recent letter. Orthodoxy on lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: zdy38e00 | |
| Philip Burch to D.W. Sharp, 27 April 1977 | ||
| Sharp’s orthodoxy contested. | ||
| Archive | tid: eoc54e00 | |
In search of Doll’s data
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 5 April 1977 | ||
| Data promised by Doll and Peto is not available at the Radcliffe Science Library. | ||
| Archive | tid: dey38e00 | |
| Peter Lee to Richard Peto, 9 February 1977 | ||
| A request for the data in the Radcliffe Science Library. | ||
| Archive | tid: eeb91a99 | |
| Richard Peto to Peter Lee, 10 February 1977 | ||
| The data is not yet in the Radcliffe Science Library but it will be soon. | ||
| Archive | tid: deb91a99 | |
| P. N. Lee, Further data from British Doctors Study | ||
| Lee can circulate Peto’s data at last (12 April, 1980) | ||
| Archive | tid: wsd71d00 | |
| P. N. Lee, Has the mortality of British doctors improved with the reductions in their cigarette smoking? British Medical Journal 2/5204 (15 December 1979), 1538-1540. | ||
| Peto’s data does not entirely support his conclusions. | ||
| Archive | tid: wpz45a99 | Offsite (free) |
When is significant not significant?
| Richard Doll and Richard Peto, Mortality among doctors in different occupations, British Medical Journal 1/6074 (4 June 1977), 1433-6. | ||
| A statistical analysis relating the causes of death in doctors to their medical specialisms. | ||
| Archive | tid: yhd20a00 | Offsite (free) |
| Hugh Dudley, When is significant not significant? British Medical Journal 2/6078 (2 July 1977), 473. | ||
| Doll and Peto do not adopt a consistent standard of statistical significance. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| Richard Doll and Richard Peto, When is significant not significant? British Medical Journal 2/6081 (23 July 1977), 259. | ||
| Over-slavish adherence to rigid criteria of statistical significance is a fault. | ||
| Archive | tid: ztd3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| G. Silverman, When is significant not significant? British Medical Journal 2/6081 (23 July 1977), 259. | ||
| It is a serious error to be a slave to statistical methods. | ||
| Archive | tid: ztd3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch and M. Susan Chesters, When is significant not significant? British Medical Journal 2/6083 (6 August 1977), 385-6. | ||
| Doll and Peto’s calculations omit an important standard correction and they formulate hypotheses after performing a test. | ||
| Archive | tid: aud3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| W. H. St John-Brooks, When is significant not significant? British Medical Journal 2/6083 (6 August 1977), 386. | ||
| Doll and Peto’s method is subjective, and exaggerated claims discredit the campaign against smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: aud3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| Robert J. Hetherington, When is significant not significant? British Medical Journal 2/6083 (6 August 1977), 385. | ||
| Accumulated non-significant results should be treated as significant. | ||
| Archive | tid: aud3aa00 | Offsite (£) |
Interlude: Burch in Italy
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 5 April 1977 | ||
| Response from the Radcliffe Science Library. A trip to Rome threatened by a strike. | ||
| Archive | tid: dey38e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 27 April 1977 | ||
| A conference in Rome followed by an Italian holiday with Burch’s daughter. | ||
| Archive | tid: ydy38e00 | |
Mortality associated with the pill
| Valerie Beral, Cardiovascular disease mortality trends and oral contraceptive use in young women, The Lancet 308/7994 (13 November 1976), 1047-51. | ||
| A study of 21 countries shows that death from cardiovascular disease has increased in proportion to the uptake of oral contraception. | ||
| Archive | tid: ywd67a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Royal College of General Practitioners’ Oral Contraceptive Study, Mortality among oral-contraceptive users, The Lancet 310/8041 (8 October 1977), 727-31. | ||
| A prospective study by the RCGP shows that women taking the pill have a higher risk of death from cardiovascular disease. [This study was conducted by Beral and earlier results had been published in 1974.] | ||
| Archive | tid: wdy87h00 | Offsite (£) |
| M. P. Vessey, K. McPherson and Bridget Johnson, Mortality among women participating in the Oxford/Family Planning Association contraceptive study, The Lancet 310/8041 (8 October 1977), 731-3. | ||
| The study shows that women taking the pill have a higher risk of death from cardiovascular disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: snt4aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| Mortality associated with the pill, The Lancet 310/8041 (8 October 1977), 747-8. | ||
| Editorial. A plea for caution about the results of the studies. | ||
| Archive | tid: fip61e00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. B. S. Fowler, Mortality associated with the pill, The Lancet 310/8043 (22 October 1977), 879. | ||
| Questions about analysis of the data from the studies. | ||
| Archive | tid: qnt4aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Mortality associated with the pill, The Lancet 310/8043 (22 October 1977), 879-80. | ||
| Beral’s study of 21 countries incidentally shows that smoking is not a cause of cardiovascular disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: qnt4a00 | Offsite (£) |
Effects of Cigarette-Smoking on Fetus and Child
| American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Environmental Hazards, Effects of cigarette smoking on the fetus and child, Pediatrics 57/3 (March 1976), 411-3. | ||
| Reasons for a new campaign against smoking in pregnancy. | ||
| Archive | tid: ley99b00 | Offsite (free) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Effects of cigarette smoking on the fetus and child, Pediatrics 60/5 (November 1977), 766. | ||
| A defence of Yerushalmy’s views on smoking and pregnancy. | ||
| Archive | tid: qjb45d00 | Offsite ($) |
Dose-response effect of maternal smoking
| S. M. Garn, H. A. Shaw and K. D. McCabe, Dose-response effect of maternal smoking, Pediatrics 62/5 (November 1978), 861-862. | ||
| A dose-response relationship between smoking in pregnancy and premature birth and low birth weight is evidence against Burch’s constitutional hypothesis. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
| P. R. J Burch, Dose-response effect of maternal smoking, Pediatrics 62/5 (November 1978), 862-863. | ||
| Garn’s evidence does not refute the constitutional hypothesis, due originally to Yerushalmy. | ||
| Archive | tid: wnz88b00 | Offsite ($) |
1978
Doll at the Royal Statistical Society
| Richard Doll, The age distribution of cancer: implications for models of carcinogenesis, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 134 (1971), 133-166. | ||
| A major paper on the statistics of cancer and carcinogenic mechanisms read to the Royal Statistical Society in 1971. Peter Armitage poses a tricky question. | ||
| Archive | tid: ivt10j00 | |
| “the official biography of Doll” | ||
| Conrad Keating, Smoking Kills (Oxford, 2009). | ||
Burch at the Royal Statistical Society
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: the problem of inferring cause (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 141 (1978), 437-477. | ||
| A major paper on smoking and lung cancer read to the Royal Statistical Society with the subsequent discussion. | ||
| Archive | tid: aal39d00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking, lung cancer and scientific debate, Tabak-Journal 2 (1979), 198-200. | ||
| Burch’s account of the meeting of the Royal Statistical Society. | ||
| Archive | tid: xpg72a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Conrad Seltzer, 15 February 1978 | ||
| Seltzer to speak in support of Burch at the RSS meeting. The rules of discussion explained. | ||
| Archive | tid: shb45d00 | |
| P. N. Lee, Smoking and lung cancer: the problem of inferring cause | ||
| Lee’s account of the RSS meeting and subsequent discussion. | ||
| Archive | tid: szx72a99 | |
| P. N. Lee, Comments on “Smoking, Lung Cancer and Scientific Debate” by Prof P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Burch’s arguments considered and rejected. | ||
| Archive | tid: wpg72a99 | |
| Carl Seltzer to Donald K Hoel, 7 June 1978 | ||
| Impressions of the RSS meeting and other news from a trip to England. | ||
| Archive | tid: mbb45d00 | |
The Doll curve
| Richard Doll and Richard Peto, Cigarette smoking and bronchial carcinoma: dose and time relationships among regular smokes and lifelong non-smokers, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 32/4 (December 1978), 303-313. | ||
| An attempt to discover a quadratic dose-response relationship in the Doctors data. | ||
| Archive | tid: ayg45j00 | Offsite (free) |
Part 3: Heart Disease
Coronary heart disease: tests of an etiological hypothesis
| Philip R. J. Burch, Coronary heart disease. Tests of etiological hypotheses, American Heart Journal 93/6 (June 1977), 805-806. | ||
| Is the association of smoking with coronary heart disease a causal one? Some possible tests. | ||
| Archive | tid: kdb62f00 | Offsite ($) |
Smoking and the cause of CHD
| Christ Aravanis, Smoking and the cause of CHD, American Heart Journal 96/3 (September 1978), 423. | ||
| Aravanis has found a small positive correlation between smoking and CHD in his study of Crete and Corfu mentioned by Burch in his paper Coronary heart disease. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Smoking and the cause of CHD, American Heart Journal 96/3 (September 1978), 423. | ||
| Aravanis had not previously reported a statistically significant correlation. Burch’s Gerontology paper indicates that smoking does not have a causal role. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
Why don’t they read the old books?
| P. Burch, Coronary disease: risk factors, age and time, American Heart Journal 97/4 (April 1979), 415-419. | ||
| A summary of Burch’s conclusions in the Gerontology paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: bmp74b00 | Offsite (broken link) |
| Otto Neurath, Why don’t they read the old books? American Heart Journal 97/5 (May 1979), 680. | ||
| Problems with the cholesterol theory of heart disease and epidemiology in general. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Why don’t they read the old books? Reply, American Heart Journal 97/5 (May 1979), 680-681. | ||
| Neurath is correct, but epidemiology can be conducted in a rigorous way. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
Coronary Heart Disease: Risk Factors and Ageing
| P. R. J. Burch, Coronary heart disease: risk factors and ageing, Gerontology 24 (1978), 123-155. | ||
| The first of Burch’s two major papers on coronary heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: kie20a00 | Offsite ($) |
Coronary Heart Disease and Smoking
| P. R. J. Burch, Coronary heart disease and smoking, Tabak-Journal 4 (1978), 244. | ||
| Conclusions of the Gerontology paper summarised. | ||
| Archive | tid: cpj68e00 | |
An end to heart attacks?
| An end to heart attacks? World Medicine (12 July 1978). | ||
| Editorial. The prospect that coronary heart disease could be eliminated by abstention from smoking and dietary fat. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| P. R. J. Burch, Coronary heart disease, World Medicine (20 September 1978), 79. | ||
| Burch’s investigations published in Gerontology suggest that risk factors for CHD such as smoking are non-causal. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
1979
Coronary disease: risk factors and time
| P. R. J. Burch, Coronary disease: risk factors, age and time, American Heart Journal 97/4 (April 1979), 415-419. | ||
| The conclusions of Burch’s Gerontology paper summarised. Criticism of risk factor epidemiology. | ||
| Archive | tid: qgz88b00 | Offsite |
The tumorigenic theory of atherosclerosis
| Earl P. Benditt and John M. Benditt, Evidence for a monoclonal origin of human atherosclerotic plaques, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 70/6 (June 1973,) 1753-1756. | ||
| The plaques involved in CHD are monoclonal, like cancers. | ||
| Archive | tid: agy95d00 | Offsite (free) |
| P. R. J. Burch, The tumorigenic theory of atherosclerosis, Archives of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine 103 (September 1979), 543-544. | ||
| The Benditts’ work corroborates that of Burch on heart disease and cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: gez10a00 | |
| P. Constantinides, The tumorigenic theory of atherosclerosis, Archives of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine 103 (September 1979), 544. | ||
| Problems with the Benditts’ study. | ||
| Archive | tid: gez10a00 | |
| P. N. Lee, “The Tumorigenic Theory of Atherosclerosis” by P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Burch’s work threatens to become a theory of everything. | ||
| Archive | tid: jxn36a99 | |
1980
Ischaemic heart disease: epidemiology, risk factors and cause
| Philip R. J. Burch, Ischaemic heart disease: epidemiology, risk factors and cause, Cardiovascular Research 14/6 (1 June 1980), 307-338. | ||
| The second of the major papers on ischaemic (coronary) heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: hkw02i00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. N. Lee, “Ischaemic heart disease: epidemiology, risk factors and cause” by P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Burch’s mathematics analysed and alternative interpretations proposed. | ||
| Archive | tid: jcp36a99 | |
Heart disease in different ethnic groups
| Heart disease in different ethnic groups, British Medical Journal 281/1638 (16 August 1980), 469-70. | ||
| Editorial. The study of different ethnic groups might shed light on genetic influence on heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: zrq65b00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Heart disease in different ethnic groups, British Medical Journal 281/6242 (13 September 1980), 743-744. | ||
| Burch’s Cardiovascular Research paper supplies just such evidence. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
Smoking and coronary disease
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and coronary disease, American Heart Journal 100/4 (October 1980), 421-423. | ||
| Editorial on the role of randomised prospective studies and twins studies in investigating causation. | ||
| Archive | tid: ngz88b00 | Offsite (free) |
Exercise and the heart
| J. N. Morris, M. G. Everitt, R. Pollard and S. P. W. Chave. Vigorous exercise in leisure-time: protection against coronary heart disease, The Lancet 312/8206 (6 December 1980), 1207-10. | ||
| A prospective study of male civil servants appears to show the protective effect of exercise against heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: oto74b00 | Offsite (£) |
| R. J. Jarrett, Exercise and the heart, The Lancet 317/8210 (3 January 1981), 36. | ||
| Morris ignores the effects of self-selection. | ||
| Archive | tid: mgz88b00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Exercise and the heart, The Lancet 317/8210 (3 January 1981), 36. | ||
| A causal effect, self-selection and genetic predisposition all account for Morris’s observations. | ||
| Archive | tid: mgz88b00 | Offsite (£) |
| J. N. Morris, M. G. Everitt, R. Pollard and S. P. W. Chave. Exercise and the heart, The Lancet 317/8214 (31 January 1981), 257. | ||
| Reasons to exclude self-selection and objections to a genetic explanation of the findings. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
Mortality in cigarette smokers and quitters
| Gary D. Friedman, A. B. Siegelaub, Loring G. Dales and Carl C. Seltzer, Characteristics predictive of coronary heart disease in ex-smokers before they stopped smoking: comparison with persistent smokers and nonsmokers. Journal of Chronic Diseases 32/1-2 (1979), 175-190. | |||||
| Data from the Kaiser Permanente study shows that future quitters are significantly different from future continuing smokers. | |||||
| Archive | tid: hsp20a00 | Offsite ($) | |||
| Gary D. Friedman, Loring G. Dales and Hans K. Ury, Mortality in middle-aged smokers and nonsmokers. New England Journal of Medicine 300/5 (1 February 1979), 213-7. | |||||
| Analysis of Kaiser Permanente data indicates that smoking has a causal effect on CHD. | |||||
| Archive | tid: uzk39d00 | Offsite ($) | |||
| Carl C. Seltzer, Smoking and Coronary Heart Disease: What are we to Believe? American Heart Journal 100/3 (September 1980), 275-280. | |||||
| The Kaiser Permanente study and the Whitehall study suggest that future quitters are self-selected. | |||||
| Archive | tid: yam24f00 | Offsite (free) | |||
| Gary D. Friedman, Diana B. Petitti, Richard D. Bawol and A. B. Siegelaub, Mortality in cigarette smokers and quitters: effect of base-line difference, New England Journal of Medicine 304/23 (4 June 1981), 1407-10. | |||||
| An analysis of the Kaiser Permanente data shows that the difference between future quitters and continuing smokers is not genetic. | |||||
| Archive | tid: yfo2aa00 | Offsite ($) | |||
| Philip R. J. Burch, Mortality in cigarette smokers and quitters, New England Journal of Medicine 305/19 (8 October 1981), 889-890. | |||||
| Friedman’s subgroups are self-selected and ought to be treated as samples from different populations. | |||||
| Archive | tid: okw02i00 | Offsite ($) | |||
| Carl C. Seltzer, Mortality in cigarette smokers and quitters, New England Journal of Medicine 305/19 (8 October 1981), 890. | |||||
| Friedman’s subgroups are self-selected and his reasoning is invalid. | |||||
| Archive | tid: okw02i00 | Offsite ($) | |||
| Gary D. Friedman, Diana B. Petitti and Richard D. Bawol. Mortality in cigarette smokers and quitters. New England Journal of Medicine 305/19 (8 October 1981), 890. | |||||
| The statistical analysis employed was the only one possible. Objections to the Whitehall study. | |||||
| Archive | tid: okw02i00 | Offsite ($) | |||
| “the unsympathetic version” | |||||
| Robert N. Proctor, Golden Holocaust (Berkeley, 2012), p. 266-7. | |||||
| Carl Seltzer to Arnold Relman, 10 February 1979 | |||||
| Seltzer’s version of the breach with Friedman. | |||||
| Archive | tid: olz61e00 | ||||
| Carl Seltzer to Alexander Holtzman, 31 March 1979 | |||||
| One of Seltzer’s findings censored by the government and confirmed by Friedman. | |||||
| Archive | tid: tle58d00 | ||||
| P. N. Lee, “Mortality in cigarette smokers and quitters”, Letters by P. R. J. Burch, C. C. Seltzer, G. D. Friedman et. al. | |||||
| Friedman had the best of the controversy and he was wise not to engage with Burch. | |||||
| Archive | tid: rcp36a99 | ||||
Part 5: Falsification
Whitehall
| Geoffrey Rose and P. J. S. Hamilton, A randomised controlled trial of the effect on middle-aged men of advice to stop smoking Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 32/4 (December 1978), 275-281. | ||
| Archive | tid: ziv05a99 | Offsite (free) |
Progression of tumours and non-neoplastic disorders as manifestations of a common biological origin
| P. R. J Burch, Progression of tumours and non-neoplastic disorder as manifestations of a comon biological phenomenon, Medical Hypotheses 4/2 (March-April 1978), 101-110. | ||
| A study of two cancers, parkinsonism and male baldness in the light of Burch’s theory of autoaggressive disease. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
Are 90% of cancers preventable?
| Are 90% of cancers preventable? The Lancet 309/8013 (26 March 1977), 685-7. | ||
| A ‘rumour’ to that effect and the evidence. | ||
| Archive | tid: pgk32f00 | Offsite (£) |
| A. J. McMichael, Increases in laryngeal cancer in Britain and Australia in relation to alcohol and tobacco consumption trends, The Lancet 311/8076 (10 June 1978), 1244-6. | ||
| Convergent rates of laryngeal cancer in Britain and Australia can be explained by convergent rates of drinking. A link to smoking is not so evident. | ||
| Archive | tid: ypa38c00 | Offsite (£) |
| The Times Medical Correspondent, Cancer: effects of alcohol and tobacco, The Times 60328 (15 June 1978), 18. | ||
| A popular summary of McMichael’s paper. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| K. S. Brown, W. H. Cherry and W. F. Forbes, Laryngeal cancer and consumption of alcohol and tobacco, The Lancet 312/8099 (18 November 1978), 1099-1100. | ||
| Discussion of McMichael’s paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: rsd3a00 | Offsite (£) |
| A. J. McMichael, Laryngeal cancer and consumption of alcohol and tobacco, The Lancet 312/8099 (18 November 1978), 1099-1100. | ||
| Brown, Cherry and Forbes’s points illustrate the need for multifactorial thinking | ||
| Archive | tid: rsd3a00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Are 90% of cancers preventable? IRCS Medical Science 6 (1978), 353-356. | ||
| Results from Burch’s investigations of oesophagal and laryngeal cancer do not support McMichael’s conclusions. | ||
| Archive | tid: zfc56a99 | |
Smoking out censorship
| [Richard Peto], Request to journalists. | ||
| An appeal from Richard Peto to the press not to publicise Hans Eysenck’s book The Causes and Effects of Smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: lbf55d00 | |
| Smoking out censorship, New Scientist 88/1232 (18/25 December 1980), 756. | ||
| Editorial. Smoking causes lung cancer, but the request amounts to character assassination and the suppression of scientific debate. | ||
| Archive | tid: osp23a00 | Offsite (free) |
| Andrew J. Crump, Smoking out censorship, New Scientist 89/1235 (8 January 1981), 94. | ||
| Peto is right: the controversial Eysenck ought not to be given publicity. | ||
| Archive | tid: mgz88b00 | Offsite (free) |
| P. Burch, Smoking out censorship, New Scientist 89/1235 (8 January 1981), 94-5. | ||
| Reasons to dispute that smoking causes lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: mgz88b00 | Offsite (free) |
Pathology, inference and carcinogenesis
| Philip R. J. Burch, Pathology, inference and carcinogenesis, in S C Sommers and P P Rosen (eds.), Pathology Annual 15/2 (New York, 1980), 21-44. | ||
| An exposition of Burch’s general theory of autoaggressive disease for a medical readership. | ||
| Archive | tid: hdl59d00 | |
Stochastic models of stomach cancer
| K. G. Manton, E. Stallard, D. Burdick and H. D. Tolley, A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions, International Journal of Epidemiology 8/3 (September, 1979) 283-291. | ||
| A theory of stomach cancer assessed against others including that of Burch. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Stochastic models of stomach cancer, International Journal of Epidemiology 9/3 (September 1980), 285-287. | ||
| Burch defends his theory. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| K. G. Manton, E. Stallard, Stochastic models of stomach cancer, International Journal of Epidemiology 9/3 (September 1980), 287-288. | ||
| Manton rejects Burch’s arguments. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
Individuals transplacentally exposed to maternal smoking may be at increased cancer risk in adult life
| Richard B. Everson, Individuals transplacentally exposed to maternal smoking may be at increased cancer risk in adult life, The Lancet 316/8186 (19 July 1980), 123-7. | ||
| A hypothesis about the effects of smoking in pregnancy and a proposed test of it. | ||
| Archive | tid: kfh54a99 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cancer risk from transplacental exposure to maternal smoking, The Lancet 316/8189 (9 August 1980), 311. | ||
| Everson’s proposed study would prove nothing. | ||
| Archive | tid: odv64e00 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 11 August 1980 | ||
| Critical remarks about the latest Surgeon General’s report with its focus on heart disease. The letter to the Lancet – an experiment to determine whether they still published Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: glh94e00 | |
Smoking and lung cancer: tests of a causal hypothesis
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: tests of a causal hypothesis, Journal of Chronic Diseases 33/4 (1980), 221-238. | ||
| The first of the papers on the Precipitator hypothesis about smoking and lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: xof50d00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. N. Lee, “Smoking and lung cancer: tests of a causal hypothesis” by P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Burch’s paper is “incredibly silly” as nobody has seriously proposed the Precipitator hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: mvn36a99 | |
1981
Smoking and mortality in England and Wales, 1950 to 1976
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and mortality in England and Wales 1950 to 1976, Journal of Chronic Diseases 34/2-3 (1981), 87-103. | ||
| The second of the major papers on the Precipitator hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: iuw2aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. N. Lee, “Smoking and mortality in England and Wales 1950 to 1976” by P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Burch has written another “silly” paper on the Precipitator hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: aep36a99 | |
Smoking, lung cancer and hypothesis testing
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking, lung cancer and hypothesis testing, Medical Hypotheses 7/12 (December 1981), 1461-1470. | ||
| The third of Burch’s major papers on the Precipitator hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: vbg65b00 | Offsite (£) |
Passive smoking and lung cancer
| Takeshi Hirayama, Non-smoking wives of heavy smokers have a higher risk of lung cancer: a study from Japan, British Medical Journal 282/6259 (17 January 1981), 183-5. | ||
| One of the first studies of passive smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: hpg97c00 | Offsite (free) |
| G. C. Sutton, Passive smoking and lung cancer, British Medical Journal 282/6265 (28 February 1981), 733. | ||
| Smokers tend to marry each other and this needs taking into account. | ||
| Archive | tid: cun86d00 | Offsite (free) |
| Sherridan L. Stock, Passive smoking and lung cancer, British Medical Journal 282/6265 (28 February 1981), 733-4. | ||
| Hirayama’s discovery is a good opportunity to impose restrictions on smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: cun86d00 | Offsite (£) |
| G.H. Miller, Non-smoking wives of heavy smokers have a higher risk of lung cancer, British Medical Journal 282/6268 (21 March 1981), 985. | ||
| Hirayama’s results are confirmed by a study by Miller. | ||
| Archive | tid: zxt04f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Martin Rutsch, Non-smoking wives of heavy smokers have a higher risk of lung cancer, British Medical Journal 282/6268 (21 March 1981), 985. | ||
| Hirayama ignores assortive mating and one of his results is not statistically significant. | ||
| Archive | tid: zxt04f00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Passive smoking and lung cancer, British Medical Journal 282/6273 (25 April 1981), 1393. | ||
| Hirayama ignores the effects of assortive mating. | ||
| Archive | tid: rjv23e00 | Offsite (£) |
| Alvan R. Feinstein, Justice, Science and the “Bad Guys”, Environmental Tobacco Smoke, 20/2 (1992), 303-5. | ||
| Archive | tid: urp32d00 | |
| Vincent-Riccardo di Pierri, Rampant Antismoking Signifies Grave Danger: Materialism Out of Control (Melbourne, 2003). | ||
| Download of “the Godber Blueprint” | Offsite | |
| Christopher Snowden, Velvet Glove, Iron Fist (London, 2009). | ||
| Purchasing information and background at | Offsite | |
Hickey, causation and the Establishment
| Richard Hickey to Vincent de Vita, 17 July 1980 | ||
| The Surgeon General’s reports for 1979 and 1980 purport to be comprehensive, but omit reference to important sceptical work. | ||
| Archive | tid: otm86d00 | |
| Diane Fink to Richard Hickey, 14 August 1980 | ||
| The matter has been referred to the Office of Smoking and Health. | ||
| Archive | tid: vgo07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Diane Fink, 26 August 1980 | ||
| Hickey has received no reply from the OSH. Further omissions from the Surgeon General’s reports include Burch, Yerushalmy and Fisher. | ||
| Archive | tid: sno07c00 | |
| US: Cost killed study of smoking, The Philadelphia Bulletin, 6 September 1980, 43. | ||
| Vincent T. DeVita has denied that the study of beagles was cut because of negative results. | ||
| Archive | tid: nfn86d00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Vincent de Vita, 9 September 1980 | ||
| Is it true that a study of smoking beagles was axed because of negative results? And will a reply to Hickey’s previous letter be forthcoming? | ||
| Archive | tid: mfn86d00 | |
| Diane Fink to Richard Hickey, 12 September 1980 | ||
| Fink has just returned from annual leave and will reply soon. | ||
| Archive | tid: ioo07c00 | |
| Diane Fink to Richard Hickey, 26 September 1980 | ||
| The beagle study was cancelled for financial reasons. The Surgeon General’s reports were prepared by experts. The issue of dissident opinion has been referred to Pinney. Experts will examine the Burch paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: kfn86d00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Diane Fink, 2 October 1980 | ||
| The omission of Burch and Yerushalmy. | ||
| Archive | tid: woo91f00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Diane Fink, 3 October 1980 | ||
| Further to his last, references to some papers on pollution and cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: aio07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Diane Fink, 6 October 1980 | ||
| Further evidence that the Surgeon General’s reports suppressed contrary evidence, including Brownlee. | ||
| Archive | tid: nqa92f00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Diane Fink, 9 October 1980 | ||
| The removal of Mary Poppins from a Philadelphia library was censorship and so is selective reporting. Examples of work on smoking and pregnancy which were ignored. | ||
| Archive | tid: iyi8aa00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Diane Fink, 21 October 1980 | ||
| Hickey has still received no reply. His paper on maternal smoking was thought worthy of inclusion in a German report so why not in the Surgeon General’s reports? | ||
| Archive | tid: vgp07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Diane Fink, 5 November 1980 | ||
| What is Fink’s explanation of regional variation in cancer rates? | ||
| Archive | tid: ugp07c00 | |
| Diane Fink to Richard Hickey, 10 November 1980 | ||
| Fink is in the process of responding to Hickey’s letters. | ||
| Archive | tid: svj8aa00 | |
| [Arlen Specter to Robert Hutchings, 13 January 1981] | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Robert Hutchings to Arlen Specter, 19 May 1981 | ||
| There is overwhelming evidence that smoking is harmful. The papers cited by Hickey were not relevant to the topic of the Surgeon General’s 1981 report The Changing Cigarette. | ||
| Archive | tid: ghp07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Robert Schweiker, 20 May 1981 | ||
| Hickey has still received no response to his letters. | ||
| Archive | tid: rvj8aa00 | |
| Joseph Fraumeni to Richard Hickey, 30 June 1981 | ||
| The authors of the Surgeon General’s 1964 report considered the views of Fisher and concluded that falling death rates in quitters falsified them. The preponderance of the evidence favours the causal theory. | ||
| Archive | tid: kql62b00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Joseph Fraumeni, 28 July 1981 | ||
| Hickey restates his point about the suppression of contrary opinion. Fraumeni has not really addressed the arguments of Fisher and Burch. The Surgeon General only quoted a few minor sceptical papers and the use of “judgment” is unscientific. | ||
| Archive | tid: pvj8aa00 | |
| Arlen Specter to Richard Hickey, 10 August 1981 | ||
| The reply from Hutchings is enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: gep07c00 | |
| Diane Fink to Richard Hickey, 14 August 1981 | ||
| Hickey’s letter has been forwarded to the Office of Smoking and Health. | ||
| Archive | tid: ggp07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Arlen Specter, 14 August 1981 | ||
| Hickey has received no response to numerous detailed criticisms of the Surgeon General’s reports. Hutchings’s reply is inadequate as it conflates association and causation. | ||
| Archive | tid: kwj8aa00 | |
| Robert Hutchings to Richard Hickey, 9 September 1981 | ||
| The composition of the 1964 committee shows it to be unbiased, and numerous objective investigations since then have concluded that smoking is harmful. | ||
| Archive | tid: ghp07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Robert Hutchings, 21 September 1981 | ||
| Hickey’s correspondence with de Vita and Fink contains numerous unanswered points, particularly the way in which Burch was ignored. Hutchings has not answered the criticisms Hickey made, which concerned selective use of the literature, confusion of correlation and causation and dose-response relationships. | ||
| Archive | tid: chp07c00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Robert Schweiker, 22 September 1981 | ||
| Hutchings has not answered Hickey adequately. | ||
| Archive | tid: bhp07c00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 19 August 1981 | ||
| Keep up the good work. | ||
| Archive | tid: hhp07c00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 28 October 1981 | ||
| Keep up the pressure on Schweiker! | ||
| Archive | tid: nuj8aa00 | |
| Richard Hickey to Philip Burch, 9 November 1981 | ||
| Hickey is persevering. Forthcoming work on smoking and cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: ouj8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 23 November 1981 | ||
| Keep up the good work! | ||
| Archive | tid: zwo07c00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 9 December 1981 | ||
| Keep up the good work! Speculations on the current bias towards environmental explanations of cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: ezj8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 9 December 1981 (second letter of the day) | ||
| Thoughts on the politicisation of science. | ||
| Archive | tid: adp07c00 | |
At the Brewers Society
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 26 October 1981 | ||
| An enjoyable conference at Straford-upon-Avon with favourable feedback about Burch’s address to the Royal Statistical Society. | ||
| Archive | tid: gqn54e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 23 November 1981 | ||
| The Stratford conference and thoughts on the anti-smoking establishment. | ||
| Archive | tid: ntj8aa00 | |
Strategy of prevention
| Geoffrey Rose, Strategy of prevention: lessons from cardiovascular disease, British Medical Journal 282/6289 (6 June 1981), 1847-51. | ||
| Rates of heart disease have fallen in the USA and Australia. Britain should follow their lead. | ||
| Archive | tid: iah00a99 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Strategy of prevention: lessons from cardiovascular disease, British Medical Journal 282/6282 (27 June 1981), 2135-6. | ||
| We do not know why heart disease is falling in those countries. Burch’s paper in Cardiovascular Research suggests that modifying lifestyle will have no effect. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
Cigarette smoking and Parkinson disease
| Robert J. Baumann, H. Douglas Jameson, Harlley E. McKean, Dennis G. Haack and Louise M. Weisberg, Cigarette smoking and Parkinson disease: 1. A comparison of cases with matched neighbors, Neurology 30/8 (August 1980), 839-843. | ||
| Cigarette smoking is negatively correlated with Parkinson disease: possible explanations. | ||
| Archive | tid: ncu88e00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and Parkinson disease, Neurology 31/4 (April 1981), 500-501. | ||
| Rates of Parkinsonism did not fall with rising smoking rates, which is evidence against a protective effect. | ||
| Archive | tid: loz09a00 | Offsite ($) |
1982
Controversy with Reif
| Arnold E. Reif, Effect of cigarette smoking on susceptibility to lung cancer, Oncology 38/2 (1981), 76-85. | ||
| Arguments against the constitutional hypotheses of Fisher and Burch. A hypothetical mechanism whereby smoking causes lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: whz92f00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer: a continuing controversy, Medical Hypotheses 9/3 (September 1982), 293-306. | ||
| Reif’s facts do not prove what he wants them to. The constitutional hypothesis still stands. | ||
| Archive | tid: dzb43f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 4 September 1981 | ||
| A reply to Reif dispatched to Oncology. | ||
| Archive | tid: tuj8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 20 October 1981 | ||
| As expected, Oncology has turned down Burch’s reply. | ||
| Archive | tid: nhp07c00 | |
| Philip Burch to Marvin Kastenbaum, 1 October 1982 | ||
| Burch’s reply to Reif has been published. | ||
| Archive | tid: pjx82f00 | |
| P. N. Lee, Some comments on “Cigarette smoking and lung cancer: a continuing controversy” by P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Most of Burch’s points are valid, but his account of differential rates of lung cancer in men and women does not hold up. | ||
| Archive | tid: nfi24a99 | |
Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease
| W. A. Tweed, Does cigarette smoking cause coronary heart disease? Canadian Medical Association Journal 126/2 (15 January 1982), 102-7. | ||
| Friedman’s Kaiser Permanente study demonstrates that smoking causes CHD. The arguments of Burch and Seltzer dismissed. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease, Canadian Medical Association Journal 127/2 (15 July 1982), 107. | ||
| Burch’s papers in Gerontology and Cardiovascular Research suggest that the risk factors for CHD are not causal. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| W. A. Tweed, Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease, Canadian Medical Association Journal 127/2 (15 July 1982), 107-8. | ||
| Burch’s arguments dismissed. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
The Waxman bill
| New light on smoking versus health debate. Congressional Record. Extension of Remarks (E 3830-2) Aug 11 (1982) | ||
| A digest of Burch’s work on smoking and health submitted to the Congress of the United States. | ||
| Archive | tid: opu56b00 | |
| Archive | tid: gac46e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 12 March 1982 | ||
| The submission to Congress enclosed. What does Seltzer think? | ||
| Archive | tid: fgt74e00 | |
| Carl Seltzer to Donald Hoel, 27 March 1982 | ||
| Burch’s submission is too long and detailed but makes good points | ||
| Archive | tid: nku25e00 | |
1983
Submission to Senator East
| Philip Burch to John East, 11 May 1983 | ||
| Burch presents his submission, with a few updates. | ||
| Archive | tid: ppz45d00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Comments on a bill, S. 772, of the 98th Congress, 1st session, introduced by Mr. Hatch, Mr Packwood and Mr. Kennedy | ||
| A summary of Burch’s work on smoking and disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: ppz45d00 | |
Oslo and MRFIT
| I. Hjermann, I. Holme, K. Velve Byre and P. Leren, Effect of diet and smoking intervention on the incidence of coronary heart disease, The Lancet 315/8258 (12 December 1981), 1303-10. | ||
| The Oslo study. A randomised, prospective study showed no effect on health from a changed diet and giving up smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: tvi97e00 | Offsite (£) |
| Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial Research Group, Multiple risk factor intervention trial. Risk factor changes and mortality results, Journal of the American Medical Association 248/12 (24 September 1982), 1465-77. | ||
| The MRFIT study. A randomised, prospective study showed no effect on health from a changed lifestyle which including giving up smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: mfg74b00 | Offsite ($) |
| MRFIT and the goals of the Journal, Journal of the American Medical Association 248/12 (24 September 1982), 1501. | ||
| The results of MRFIT are disappointing but improved health in both of the randomised groups is welcome. | ||
| Archive | tid: itm66a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Paul Leren, Anders Helgeland, Ingvar Hjermann and Ingvar Holme, Commentary. MRFIT and the Oslo study, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/7 (18 February 1983), 893-4. | ||
| The disappointing results of Oslo and MRFIT may be due to lack of statistical power. | ||
| Archive | tid: zrd19a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, The multiple risk factor intervention trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/11 (18 March 1983), 1435. | ||
| Burch’s studies of cardiovascular disease suggest that the risk factors are not causes. | ||
| Archive | tid: gvs47a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Carl C. Seltzer, The multiple risk factor intervention trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/11 (18 March 1983), 1435-6. | ||
| The Whitehall and Oslo studies show that the failure of MRFIT is no aberration. | ||
| Archive | tid: gvs47a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Kurt A. Oster, The multiple risk factor intervention trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/11 (18 March 1983), 1436. | ||
| The failure of MRFIT must be due to a faulty analysis of the Framingham study. | ||
| Archive | tid: gvs47a00 | Offsite ($) |
| David B. Gordon, The multiple risk factor intervention trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/11 (18 March 1983), 1436-7. | ||
| On the treatment of hypertension. | ||
| Archive | tid: gvs47a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Weldon J. Walker, The multiple risk factor intervention trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/11 (18 March 1983), 1437. | ||
| On the treatment of hypertension. | ||
| Archive | tid: gvs47a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Irwin D. J. Bross, The multiple risk factor intervention trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/11 (18 March 1983), 1437. | ||
| The insignificant difference in lung cancer rates between the two groups can be explained as competitive mortality from heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: gvs47a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Jeffrey A. Cutler,The multiple risk factor intervention trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 249/11 (18 March 1983), 1437. | ||
| Reasons to think that the risk factors are causes. Possible explanation of the null result. | ||
| Archive | tid: gvs47a00 | Offsite ($) |
Radiation-induced cancer
| P. R. J. Burch, Radiation-induced cancer, Health Physics 43/2 (1982), 275. | A protest against the use of “radiogenic” to mean “caused by radiation”. | |
| Not in archive. | ||
Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis
| Hershel Jick and Alexander M. Walker, Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis. New England Journal of Medicine 308/5 (3 February 1983), 261-3. | ||
| A study suggests that smoking protects against ulcerative colitis. Alternatives to a causal explanation. | ||
| Archive | tid: fwr97e00/pdf | Offsite ($) |
| John C. Bailar III, Cigarettes, ulcerative colitis, and inferences from uncontrolled data, New England Journal of Medicine 308/5 (3 February 1983), 275-7. | ||
| The study does not prove a protective effect of smoking: possible alternatives. It took years to persuade medical opinion that smoking causes lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: fwr97e00 | Offsite ($) |
| S. N. Gyde and R. N. Allen, Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis, New England Journal of Medicine 308/24 (16 June 1983), 1476. | ||
| The authors report a similar result of their own. | ||
| Archive | tid: sfk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| Evelyn J. Bowers, I. Elaine Allen and Richard J. Hickey, Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis. New England Journal of Medicine 308/24 (16 June 1983), 1476. | ||
| Considerations favouring the causal explanation. | ||
| Archive | tid: sfk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| Stephen B. Hanauer, Mark Silverstein and Joseph B. Kirsner, Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis, New England Journal of Medicine 308/24 (16 June 1983), 1476. | ||
| Support for Bailar’s cautious outlook. | ||
| Archive | tid: sfk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis, New England Journal of Medicine 308/24 (16 June 1983), 1476-7. | ||
| Bailar’s caution is commendable. Sceptics about smoking and lung cancer do not find the truth unwelcome as Bailar suggested. | ||
| Archive | tid: sfk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| Hershel Jick and Alexander M. Walker, Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis, New England Journal of Medicine 308/24 (16 June 1983), 1477. | ||
| Gyde and Allen’s corroboration welcome. New anecdotal evidence for a causal explanation. | ||
| Archive | tid: sfk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| John C. Bailar III, Cigarette smoking and ulcerative colitis, New England Journal of Medicine 308/24 (16 June 1983), 1477. | ||
| No personal attack on Burch was intended. | ||
| Archive | tid: sfk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| Philip Burch to Carl Seltzer, 14 February 1983 | ||
| Burch’s letter to Bailar enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: ail68e00 | |
| Carl Seltzer to Philip Burch, 25 February 1983 | ||
| Burch is right: such caution is never seen in connection with a positive correlation between smoking and disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: vhl68e00 | |
The Surgeon General’s “Epidemiological Criteria for Causality”: a critique
Exchange with Lilienfeld
| P. R. J. Burch, The Surgeon General’s “epidemiologic criteria for causality”. A critique, Journal of Chronic Diseases 36/12 (1983), 821-836. | ||
| The Surgeon General’s report appeal to five criteria for establishing the causal role of smoking in disease. They are poor scientific methodology and do not prove what is claimed. | ||
| Archive | tid: hms61f00 | Offsite ($) |
| Abraham M. Lilienfeld, The Surgeon General’s “epidemiologic criteria for causality”: a criticism of Burch’s critique, Journal of Chronic Diseases 36/12 (1983), 837-845. | ||
| A defence of the five criteria and the Surgeon General’s conclusions. | ||
| Archive | tid: lyh05c00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, The Surgeon General’s “epidemiologic criteria for causality”. Reply to Lilienfeld, Journal of Chronic Diseases 37/2 (1984), 148-156. | ||
| The case against the Surgeon General’s methodology restated. | ||
| Archive | tid: gms61f00 | Offsite ($) |
Part 5: Preventive medicine
1984
A new friendship
The Surgeon General on CHD
Visit to Southampton
More on Burch’s theory
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 16 December 1983 | ||
| A request to meet Burch for discussion of his work. | ||
| Archive | tid: koc10a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 19 December 1983 | ||
| Burch will be delighted. A copy of the Lilienfeld exchange enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: lmm07a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 13 January 1984 | ||
| An enjoyable meeting all round. The second Lilienfeld paper enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: fmm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 13 January 1984 | ||
| Thanks for the discussion. The latest Surgeon General’s report will follow. | ||
| Archive | tid: goc10a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 19 January 1984 | ||
| Thanks for the papers. Some further questions. | ||
| Archive | tid: bmm07a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 24 January 1984 | ||
| Futher explanation of the parameter S. | ||
| tid: amm07a99 | Archive | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 31 January 1984 | ||
| Thornton is digesting Burch’s work and will have more questions later. | ||
| Archive | tid: zlm07a99 | |
| Burch to Thornton, 2 February 1984 | ||
| Outrage at the Surgeon General’s latest report. | ||
| Archive | tid: mvk85a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 23 February 1984 | ||
| More questions about Burch’s equations. | ||
| Archive | tid: xlm07a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 27 February 1984 | ||
| The questions answered at length. | ||
| Archive | tid: wlm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 1 March 1984 | ||
| Many thanks. Thornton will have more questions in due course. | ||
| Archive | tid: vlm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 30 March 1984 | ||
| An invitation to speak at the BAT research centre in Southampton on terms which will not compromise Burch’s independence. | ||
| Archive | tid: utb50a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 5 April 1984 | ||
| The invitation accepted and a proposed topic. | ||
| Archive | tid: slm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 6 April 1984 | ||
| The visit confirmed. | ||
| Archive | tid: rlm07a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 6 June 1984 | ||
| Many thanks for an interesting visit and hospitality. | ||
| Archive | tid: klm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 18 July 1984 | ||
| How does Burch’s work relate to recent advances in molecular biology? | ||
| Archive | tid: hvk85a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 25 July 1984 | ||
| Burch keeps a large file of new work on molecular biology. Various recent developments accord with his thinking. | ||
| Archive | tid: ilm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 2 August 1984 | ||
| Thanks for the response. Thornton will be in touch again. | ||
| Archive | tid: hlm07a99 | |
Philip Morris and tobacco funding
| Nicholas Martin to Philip Burch, 21 July 1983 | ||
| An invitation to lecture at Virginia Commonwealth University. | ||
| Archive | tid: pqj34e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Nicholas Martin, 2 August 1983 | ||
| Money matters and the content of Burch’s course. | ||
| Archive | tid: qqj34e00 | |
| Nicholas Martin to Robert Moore, 24 January 1984 | ||
| A request for funding from Philip Morris. | ||
| Archive | tid: rqj34e00 | |
| Nicholas Martin to Philip Burch, 8 February 1984 | ||
| Philip Morris have refused funding in order not to compromise Burch. Money may be found in other ways. | ||
| Archive | tid: rii88e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Nicholas Martin, 14 February 1984 | ||
| Burch’s relief at not being compromised. | ||
| Archive | tid: sii88e00 | |
| Robert Moore to Stanley Scott, 16 February 1984 | ||
| Philip Morris have decided not to fund Burch to maintain his integrity. Can they fund a different project instead? | ||
| Archive | tid: xyx88h00 | |
| Carl Seltzer to Jetson Lincoln, 25 November 1983 | ||
| Philip Morris should not contact Burch directly as he and Seltzer wish to preserve his credibility. | ||
| Archive | tid: ykt74e00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Diet and ischaemic heart disease, The Lancet 322/8352 (24 September 1983) 743 | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
Normal growth and neoplastic growth
| P. R. J. Burch, Normal growth and neoplastic growth: are they connected? in L Gedda and P Parisi (eds.), Auxology: Human Growth In Health And Disorder, 7-21 (London, New York, San Francisco 1978). | ||
| A study of retinoblastoma in the light of Burch’s theory of autoaggressive disease. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
Long term effect of stopping on angina
| Risteard Mulcahy, Noel Hickey, Ian Graham and Graham McKenzie, Factors influencing long-term prognosis in male patients surviving a first coronary attack, British Heart Journal 37/2 (February 1975), 158-65. | ||
| The authors’ first study of smoking and survival from heart attacks. | ||
| Archive | tid: rfe76a00 | Offsite (free) |
| Leslie E. Daly, Risteard Mulcahy, Ian M. Graham and Noel Hickey, Long term effect on mortality of stopping smoking after unstable angina and mycardial infarction, British Medical Journal 287/6388 (30 July 1983), 324-326. | ||
| A study of smoking and survival from heart attacks indicates that smokers have a higher risk of death than ex-smokers and never smokers. | ||
| Archive | tid: mzm36a99 | Offsite (free) |
| Carl C. Seltzer, Effect of stopping smoking after unstable angina and myocardial infarction, British Medical Journal 287/6401 (29 October 1983), 1301-2. | ||
| The study also shows that ex-smokers have a better prognosis than never smokers. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| Leslie E. Daly, Risteard Mulcahy, Ian M. Graham and Noel Hickey, Effect of stopping smoking after unstable angina andmyocardial infarction, British Medical Journal 287/6401 (29 October 1983), 1302. | ||
| Possible explanations of the anomaly. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Effect of stopping smoking after unstable angina andmyocardial infarction, British Medical Journal 288/6441 (14 January 1984), 146. | ||
| The three groups of men studied are not comaparable. The Whitehall study and Burch’s own work indicate that risk factors for heart disease are not causes. | ||
| Archive | tid: wmk72f00 | Offsite (£) |
| Leslie E. Daly, Risteard Mulcahy, Ian M. Graham and Noel Hickey, Effect of stopping smoking after unstable angina and myocardial infarction, British Medical Journal 288/6411 (14 January 1984), 146. | ||
| Reasons for disregarding the anomaly. Improbability of a genetic explanation. | ||
| Archive | tid: wmk72f00 | Offsite (£) |
Modifying risk
| Jay H. Lubin, William J. Blot, Franco Berrino, Robert Flamant, Charles R. Gillis, Michael Kunze, Dietrich Schmähl and Giuseppe Visco, Modifying risk of developing lung cancer by changing habits of cigarette smoking, British Medical Journal 288/6435 (30 June 1984), 1953-1955. | ||
| A large-scale case control study demonstrates the benefits of stopping smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: gew22a99 | Offsite (free) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Modifying risk of lung cancer by changing smoking habits, British Medical Journal 289/6440 (4 August 1984), 321-322. | ||
| The authors ignore self-selection and the randomised prospective studies. | ||
| Archive | tid: fgf55d00 | Offsite (£) |
Diet and ischaemic heart disease
| Diet and ischaemic heart disease – agreement or not? The Lancet 332/8345 (6 August 1983 317-9. | ||
| Editorial. High rates of ischaemic heart disease require new dietary advice. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
|
Keith Ball, Nutrition and the public, The Lancet 332/8345 (6 August 1983) 339-40. Not in archive |
||
| New dietary advice is needed and the NACNE report should be published. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Diet and ischaemic heart disease, The Lancet 322/8352 (24 September 1983) 743. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
End of static decade?
| End of static decade for coronary disease? British Medical Journal 289/6444 (1 September 1984), 509-510. | ||
| An editorial by A. Stewart Truswell welcoming the NACNE report. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, End of static decade for coronary heart disease? British Medical Journal 289/6452 (27 October 1984), 1142. | ||
| Signs of a spontaneous reduction in rates of CHD without the need for dietary intervention. | ||
| Archive | tid: glm07a99 | Offsite (£) |
The food scandal
| National Advisory Committee on Nutrition Education. A Discussion paper on proposals for nutritional guidelines for health education in Britain / prepared for the National Advisory Committee on Nutrition Education by an ad hoc working party under the chairmanship of W.P.T. James, 1983. | |||
| A government report on diet. | |||
| Not in archive | |||
| Geoffrey Cannon, Diet Report sticks in ministerial gullets, New Scientist 100/1380 (20 October 1983), 160. | |||
| The history and politics of the report. | |||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | ||
| Caroline Walker and Geoffrey Cannon, The food scandal : what’s wrong with the British diet and how to put it right (London, 1984). | |||
| The history and politics of the report in detail. | |||
| Not in archive | Offsite | ||
| Geoffrey Cannon, 2011 July blog | |||
| Geoffrey Cannon, 2011 August blog | |||
| Cannon’s own account | |||
| Not in archive | Offsite | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | ||
| Alan Maryon-Davis with Jane Thomas, Diet 2000 : at last – a diet you can live with (London, 1984) | |||
| A recommended diet. | |||
| Not in archive | |||
| Derek Cooper, The Food Scandal, The Listener, 21 June 1984. | |||
| A review of Walker and Cannon and of Diet 2000. | |||
| Not in archive | |||
| Philip R. J. Burch, Food for thought, The Listener, 12 July 1984 | |||
| Risk factor epidemiology assumes that correlation is causation. | |||
| Not in archive | |||
| Colin W. Brown, Food for thought, The Listener, 26 July 1984. | |||
| Burch is a smoking sceptic and not to be taken seriously. | |||
| Not in archive | |||
| Philip R. J. Burch, Food for thought, The Listener, 9 August 1984. | |||
| On the correct approach to epidemiology. | |||
| Not in archive | |||
Controversy with Kristein
| Marvin M. Kristein, 40 years of U.S. Cigarette smoking and heart disease and cancer mortality rates. Journal of Chronic Diseases 37/5 (1984), 317-323. | ||
| The causal role of cigarettes in lung cancer and CHD demonstrated from 40 years of US data. | ||
| Archive | tid: oiq10a00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Commentary on “40 years of U.S. cigarette smoking and heart disease and cancer mortality rates”, Journal of Chronic Diseases 37/5 (1984), 325-332. | ||
| Statistical flaws in Kristein’s reasoning. | ||
| Archive | tid: kyu02i00 | Offsite ($) |
| [Marvin M. Kristein], Author’s reply, Journal of Chronic Diseases 37/5 (1984), 333-335. | ||
| Burch has misunderstood Kristein’s calculations. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and mortality rates, Journal of Chronic Diseases 38/6 (1985), 469-70. | ||
| A demonstration that Burch performed the same calculation as Kristein. | ||
| Archive | tid: dbk36a99 | Offsite ($) |
| Marvin M. Kristein, Response. Journal of Chronic Diseases 38/6 (1985), 471-3. | ||
| An attack on Burch’s motivation. | ||
| Archive | tid: bvs73d00 | Offsite ($) |
| Richard J. Hickey, Cigarette smoking, cancer, statistics and judgement, Journal of Chronic Diseases 39/5 (1986), 407-408. | ||
| Defects of the Surgeon General’s methodology. A defence of Burch from personal attack. | ||
| Archive | tid: ah063d00 | Offsite ($) |
| [Marvin M. Kristein], Response, Journal of Chronic Diseases 39/5 (1986,) 409. | ||
| Kristein’s lofty motives. | ||
| Archive | tid: aho63d00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. N. Lee, “40 years of US cigarette smoking and heart disease” M.M. Kristein | ||
| Kristein is out of his depth and has not refuted Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: mqm36a99 | |
1985
Fag End
| Richard Peto and Richard Doll, Keynote Address: The Control of Lung Cancer, in Merle Mizell and Pelayo Correa (eds.), Lung cancer : causes and prevention : proceedings of the International Lung Cancer Update Conference held in New Orleans, Louisiana … 1983 (Deerfield Beach, 1984). | ||
| The case against smoking restated together with a call for further restrictions on smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: jlx61b00 | |
| Richard Peto and Richard Doll, The control of lung cancer. New Scientist 105/1440 (24 January 1985), 26-30. | ||
| A popularised version of the Keynote Address. | ||
| Archive | tid: nvk27a99 | Offsite (free) |
| Frank Rogers, Fag End, New Scientist 105/1442 (7 February 1985), 48. | ||
| Various facts not accounted for by the Doll-Peto theory of lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: jok8aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Fag End, New Scientist 105/1442 (7 February 1985), 48. | ||
| Doll and Peto ignore self-selection and the results of MRFIT. | ||
| Archive | tid: jok8aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 14 February 1985 | ||
| Burch’s surprise at being published. | ||
| Archive | tid: avk85a99 | |
The World Cancer Burden
| C. S. Muir and D. M. Parkin, The world cancer burden: prevent or perish, British Medical Journal 290/6461 (5 January 1985), 5-6. | ||
| 80% to 90% of cancer is of environmental origin. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, The world cancer burden, British Medical Journal 290/6469 (2 March 1985), 710. | ||
| Muir and Parkin ignore self-selection, MRFIT and Whitehall. | ||
| Archive | tid: hok8aa00 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 6 March 1985 | ||
| Burch’s surprise at being published in the BMJ. Neither Muir and Parkin nor Doll and Hill have risen to his challenge. | ||
| Archive | tid: zuk85a99 | |
Non-antipodean smoking view
| Simon Chapman, Not biting the hand that feeds you, Tobacco advertising and editorial bias in Australian newspapers, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (14 April 1984), 480-2. | |||
| An analysis of press coverage of a proposed ban on tobacco advertising. | |||
| Archive | tid: khl02d00 | ||
| Allan Peachment, Learning from legislative disasters, The defeat of the Western Australian Government’s Tobacco (Promotion and Sales) Bill, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (14 April 1984), 482-5. | |||
| Some proposals to ensure success on a future occasion. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| Alister Brass, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (14 April 1984), 469. | |||
| Editorial. Ridicule of the anti-smoking movement as part of political correctness. | |||
| Archive | tid: loj43a99 | ||
| Simon Chapman, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 682. | |||
| Quo vadis, Dr Brass? | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| R. L. Hodge, L. Simons, D. Shaw, J. G. Richards, T. Morgan, R. Goodwin and T. Baird, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 682. | |||
| Superficiality and insensitivity of Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| John Shaw, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 682-3. | |||
| Shaw disappointed with Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| K. J. Harvey, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 683. | |||
| Harvey saddened by Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| Paul Magnus, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 683. | |||
| Magnus unable to see the joke. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| John Donovan, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 683. | |||
| Dr Brass should have foreseen the consequences of his editorial. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| Nigel Gray, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 683. | |||
| The blinkered view of Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| W. M. Burch, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 683-4. | |||
| Thurberesque skills of Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| A. D. Shrool, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 684. | |||
| Shrool strongly objects to Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| A. Sauer, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984) ,684. | |||
| Sauer disgusted with Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| [Alister Brass], In reply, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (26 May 1984), 684. | |||
| Brass was criticising the moralistic attitude of the extreme anti-smoking campaigners. | |||
| Archive | tid: ner71d00 | ||
| A. Zdenkowsi, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984) , 742. | |||
| The anti-smoking movement should not be ridiculed. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| J. S. Wallace, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984), 742. | |||
| Public smoking infringes Wallace’s rights as an ex-smoker. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| H. R. Elphick, K. Faulkner and A. W. Musk, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984), 742-3. | |||
| The unanimous opposition of the medical profession to smoking. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| Gwyn Howells, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984), 743. | |||
| The profession has been stabbed in the back. Hopes for Brass’s resignation. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| Peter Vogel, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984), 743. | |||
| Vogel demands evidence against the good effects of vandalising cigarette adverts. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| Richard L. Heary, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984), 743. | |||
| Smokers have no right to be foolish. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| F. K. Rickwood, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984), 743. | |||
| Support for Brass: smokers are treated like lepers. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| Michael J. Farrell, Smoke gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (9 June 1984), 743. | |||
| From a cigar smoker: medicine is about presenting facts, not modifying behaviour. | |||
| Archive | tid: oer71d00 | ||
| George Repin, Smoke still gets in your eyes, The Medical Journal of Australia 140 (23 June 1984), 797. | |||
| The policy of the Australian Medical Association is to alter social attitudes to smoking. | |||
| Archive | tid: lhl02d00 | ||
| R. J. Epstein, Where there’s smoke, The Medical Journal of Australia 141 (7 July 1984), 66. | |||
| The ruthlessness and unscrupulousness of the press and the cigarette companies. | |||
| Archive | tid: mhl02d00 | ||
| Douglas Gordon, Where there’s smoke, The Medical Journal of Australia 141 (7 July 1984), 67. | |||
| The need for government-funded preventive medicine. | |||
| Archive | tid: mhl02d00 | ||
| Charles Watson, Where there’s smoke, The Medical Journal of Australia 141 (7 July 1984), 67. | |||
| Dr Brass trivialises the issue and hands ammunition to the tobacco companies. | |||
| Archive | tid: mhl02d00 | ||
| Philip Bell and A. D. Wodak, Where there’s smoke, The Medical Journal of Australia 141 (7 July 1984), 67-8. | |||
| The power of advertising and Dr Brass’s indulgence in name calling. | |||
| Archive | tid: mhl02d00 | ||
| Michael Copeman, Where there’s smoke, The Medical Journal of Australia 141 (7 July 1984), 68. | |||
| In support of Dr Brass. | |||
| Archive | tid: mhl02d00 | ||
| Calvin Miller, Medical journal editor stuns and angers health campaigners, New York State Journal of Medicine (July 1985), 432-4. | |||
| An account of the Brass affair. | |||
| Archive | tid: tlh76a99 | ||
| Philip R. J. Burch, Non-antipodean smoking view, The Medical Journal of Australia 142 (4 February 1985), 238-239. | |||
| The Whitehall and MRFIT studies circumvent self-selection and suggest that cigarettes do not cause lung cancer. | |||
| Archive | tid: loh31e00 | ||
| Konrad Jamrozik, Smoking and lung cancer, The Medical Journal of Australia 142 (1 April 1985), 428. | |||
| Three pieces of evidence for the causal role of cigarette smoking. | |||
| Not in archive | |||
| J. P. Pierce, Smoking and Burch, The Medical Journal of Australia 142, (13 May 1985), 578-9. | |||
| Lilienfeld exposed Burch’s flawed science. Two facts from Whitehall and MRFIT which he has ignored. | |||
| Archive | tid: tbh94f00 | ||
| Carl C. Seltzer, Smoking and Burch, The Medical Journal of Australia 143 (19 August 1985), 176. | |||
| Pierce’s facts about CHD drawn from Whitehall and MRFIT are not statistically significant. | |||
| Archive | tid: ubh94f00 | ||
| J. R. Johnstone, Smoking and Burch, The Medical Journal of Australia 143 (19 August 1985), 176. | |||
| Pierce’s facts about lung cancer drawn from Whitehall and MRFIT are not statistically significant. | |||
| Archive | tid: ubh94f00 | ||
| Philip R. J. Burch, Smoking: association with disease, The Medical Journal of Australia 143 (30 September 1985), 318. | |||
| Pierce assumes that correlation is causation and he neglects to point out the facts which proved intervention to have failed in both studies. | |||
| Archive | tid: wbx61f00 | ||
| John P. Pierce, Smoking and Burch, revisited, The Medical Journal of Australia 143 (14 October 1985), 369. | |||
| Reasons for the anomalous results of Whitehall and MRFIT. | |||
| Archive | tid: wbh94f00 | ||
| Philip R. J. Burch, Smoking, disease and the admissibility of evidence, The Medical Journal of Australia 144 (14 April 1986), 446-447. | |||
| Pierce misrepresents Burch and now appeals to the results given by Whitehall and MRFIT if randomisation is ignored. | |||
| Archive | tid: xbh94f00 | ||
| John P. Pierce, Smoking, disease and the admissibility of evidence, The Medical Journal of Australia 144 (14 April 1986), 446-447. | |||
| Kristein’s opinion of Burch repeated. Burch’s criteria of evidence impossibly stringent. | |||
| Archive | tid: xbh94f00 | ||
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 7 May 1985 | |||
| Burch’s letter to the Medical Journal of Australia enclosed. | |||
| Archive | tid: ovn34a99 | ||
| More about Chapman and the Australian anti-smoking movement from J. R. Johnstone. | |||
| Not in archive | Offsite | ||
Oesophageal Cancer
| P. R. J. Burch, Esophageal cancer in relation to cigarette and alcohol consumption, Journal of Chronic Diseases 37/11 (1984), 793-808. | ||
| A major paper applying Burch’s approach to epidemiology to oesophageal cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: rkm07a99 | Offsite ($) |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 7 January 1985 | ||
| The paper enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: dvk85a99 | |
| P. N. Lee, “Esophageal cancer in relation to cigarette and alcohol consumption” P. R. J. Burch | ||
| There are weaknesses in Burch’s case but the association of alcohol with cancer is not strong. | ||
| Archive | tid: aiu36a99 | |
Scientifically speaking
| Mat Coward, Langham Diary, The Listener (18 April 1985), 19. | ||
| Ridicule of new smoking restrictions in hospitals. Doctors are far too certain about the dangers of smoking. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| M. P. Haggard, Scientifically speaking, The Listener (9 May 1985) | ||
| Cowards’s levity is misplaced: the dangers of smoking are beyond dispute. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| P. R. J. Burch, Scientifically speaking, The Listener (30 May 1985), 27. | ||
| Coward is right. The dangers of smoking are not borne out by Whitehall and MRFIT. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 6 June 1985 | ||
| The Coward correspondence forwarded. | ||
| Archive | tid: vjm07a99 | |
Heart of the matter
| James LeFanu, Doctors battle for the nation’s heart, The Times 62257 (1 October 1985), 16. | ||
| A sceptical newspaper item on the NACNE report. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Philip R. J. Burch, Heart of the matter. The Times 62265 (10 October 1985) 15 | ||
| LeFanu’s scepticism is justified. | ||
| Archive | tid: wmz07a99 | |
Endometrial cancer
| Samuel M. Lesko, Lynn Rosenberg, David W. Kaufman, Susan P. Helmrich, Donald R. Miller, Brian Strom, David Schottenfeld, Neil B. Rosenshein, Robert C. Knapp, John Lewis and Samuel Shapiro, Cigarette smoking and the risk of endometrial cancer, New England Journal of Medicine, 313/10 (5 September 1985), 393-6. | ||
| A study showing that postmenopausal women who smoke heavily have a lower risk of endometrial cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: ynh76a99 | Offsite ($) |
| Noel S. Weiss, Can not smoking be hazardous to your health? New England Journal of Medicine 313/10 (5 September 1985), 632-3. | ||
| Smoking by postmenopausal women would cause more deaths than it prevented. | ||
| Archive | tid: kkx68e00 | Offsite ($) |
| Gunnar R. Nordenstam, Cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer, New England Journal of Medicine 315 /10 (4 September 1986), 645. | ||
| Problems with Lesko’s choice of control group. | ||
| Archive | Offsite ($) | tid: nqe04d00 |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer, New England Journal of Medicine 315/10 (4 September 1986), 645. | ||
| Negative correlation is not protection any more than positive correlation is causation. | ||
| Archive | tid: ynh76a99 | Offsite ($) |
| Harriet H. Imrey, Cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer, New England Journal of Medicine 315 /10 (4 September 1986), 645-6. | ||
| Problems with Lesko’s choice of control group. | ||
| Archive | tid: nqe04d00 | Offsite ($) |
| Bret A. Lashner, Stephen B. Hanauer and Marc D. Silverstein, Cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer, New England Journal of Medicine 315/10 (4 September 1986), 645-6. | ||
| Problems with Lesko’s choice of control group. | ||
| Archive | tid: nqe04d00 | Offsite ($) |
| R. T. Ravenholt, Cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer, New England Journal of Medicine 315/10 (4 September 1986), 646. | ||
| Problems with the case-control method. | ||
| Archive | tid: nqe04d00 | Offsite ($) |
| Samuel M. Lesko, Lynn Rosenberg, David W. Kaufman and Samuel Shapiro, Cigarette smoking and endometrial cancer, New England Journal of Medicine 315/10 (4 September 1986), 646. | ||
| The choice of controls defended. Reasons to reject Burch’s constitutional hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: nqe04d00 | Offsite ($) |
Meeting with Sheehy
| “by the slow route” | ||
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 21 March 1985 | ||
| Archive | tid: xkm07a99 | |
| “off to Italy” | ||
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 25 June 1985 | ||
| Archive | tid: sjm07a99 | |
| “Scotland” | ||
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 9 September 1985 | ||
| Archive | tid: ljm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 18 April 1985 | ||
| Request for comments on the compendium. Arrangements for Sheehy’s visit. | ||
| Archive | tid: skm07a99 | |
| R. E. Thornton, Itinerary for visit of Mr. P. Sheehy and Mr. E. A. A. Bruell to Leeds on Wednesday, 24 April, 1985 | ||
| Travel arrangements. | ||
| Archive | tid: itb50a99 | |
| R. E. Thornton, Note for Mr. E.A.A. Bruell, visits to outside organisations | ||
| Travel arrangements. | ||
| Archive | tid: gee66a99 | |
| R. E. Thornton, Aide-memoire, Professor P. R. J. Burch | ||
| A thumbnail sketch of Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: dtb50a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 9 May 1985 | ||
| A critique of the compendium. | ||
| Archive | tid: ikm07a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 12 June 1985 | ||
| A request to return the compendium. | ||
| Archive | tid: ouk85a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 13 June 1985 | ||
| Return of the compendium. | ||
| Archive | tid: nuk85a99 | |
Kronebusch
| The Health Program, Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Smoking-related deaths and financial costs. | ||
| An American government report on the alleged financial costs of smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: rlu42e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Karl Kronebusch, 29 May 1985 | ||
| Scathing criticisms of the report. | ||
| Archive | tid: bkm07a99 | |
| Irvin Molotsky, Smokers’ ills cost billions, U.S. says, New York Times, 16 September 1985 A13. | ||
| A journalistic summary of the report. | ||
| Archive | tid: ncz46e00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 8 October 1985 | ||
| Thanks for a press clipping of Molotsky. | ||
| Archive | tid: lwp07c00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 30 October 1985 | ||
| Burch has received a copy of the report and fired off a “testy” reply. | ||
| Archive | tid: hrk8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Karl Kronebusch, 30 October 1985 | ||
| Further criticism of the report. | ||
| Archive | tid: irk8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 22 November 1985 | ||
| Another copy of the report has arrived. | ||
| Archive | tid: nvp07c00 | |
| Philip Burch to Judith Wagner, 22 November 1985 | ||
| More criticism of the report. | ||
| Archive | tid: krk8aa00 | |
Part 6: Passive Smoking
Sandler on passive smoking
| Dale P. Sandler, Richard B. Everson and Allen J. Wilcox, Passive smoking in adulthood and cancer risk, American Journal of Epidemiology 121/1 (1985), 37-48. | ||
| A study of cancer patients shows a higher level of risk in the spouses of smokers. | ||
| Archive | tid: cbh16a99 | Offsite ($) |
| Gary D. Friedman, Passive smoking in adulthood and cancer risk, American Journal of Epidemiology 123/2 (1986), 367. | ||
| Sandler should have considered more confounding factors. | ||
| Archive | tid: lyb02a00 | Offsite (broken link) |
| Nathan Mantel, Passive smoking in adulthood and cancer risk, American Journal of Epidemiology 123/12 (1986), 367-8. | ||
| Sandler should have identified his subjects as smokers or non-smokers at the start of the study. | ||
| Archive | tid: lyb02a00 | Offsite (broken link) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Passive smoking in adulthood and cancer risk, American Journal of Epidemiology 123/12 (1986), 368-9. | ||
| Sandler ignores workplace smoking and assortive mating. His study identifies no dose-response relationship. | ||
| Archive | tid: lyb02a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Dale P. Sandler, Richard B. Everson and Allen J. Wilcox, The authors reply, American Journal of Epidemiology 123/12 (1986), 369-70. | ||
| The conclusions of the paper remain plausible in the light of the above criticisms. | ||
| Archive | tid: lyb02a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Dale P. Sandler, Allen J. Wilcox and Richard B. Everson, Cumulative effects of lifetime passive smoking on cancer risk, The Lancet 325/8424 (9 February 1985), 312-4. | ||
| Risk of lung cancer appears to increase in proportion to the number of smokers subjects had lived with. | ||
| Archive | tid: cev46a99 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Lifetime passive smoking and cancer risk, The Lancet 325/8433 (13 April 1985), 866. | ||
| An amusing mathematical consequence of Sandler’s model. | ||
| Archive | tid: aoc02a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Ian Higgins, Lifetime passive smoking and cancer risk, The Lancet 325/8433 (13 April 1985), 866. | ||
| Problems with the data used in the study | ||
| Archive | tid: aoc02a00 | Offsite (£) |
| D. P. Sandler, A. J. Wilcox and R. B. Everson, Lifetime passive smoking and cancer risk, The Lancet 325/8433 (13 April 1985), 866. | ||
| Burch does not distinguish between childhood and adult exposure to smoke. The doubts of Higgins countered. | ||
| Archive | tid: aoc02a00 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 21 March 1985 | ||
| The letter enclosed. Burch is “partial” to his amusing point. | ||
| Archive | tid: xkm07a99 | |
1986
Repace and Lowrey
| J. L. Repace and A. H. Lowrey, A quantitative estimate of nonsmokers’ lung cancer risk from passive smoking, Environment International 11/1 (1985), 3-22. | ||
| A calculation of the risks of passive smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: zml19a00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Health risks of passive smoking: problems of interpretation, Environment International 12/1-4 (1986), 23-28. | ||
| Repace and Lowrey’s shaky reasoning. | ||
| Archive | tid: ezu23e00 | Offsite ($) |
Lee leaked
| Olivia Timbs and Lorraine Fraser, Passive smoking: no significant danger, The Times 62488 (20 June 1986), 11. | ||
| News item on a forthcoming study of passive smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: iso40c00 | |
| Thomson Prentice. Cancer linked to ‘passive smoking’ says senior scientist, The Times 62492 (25 June 1986), 5. | ||
| News item on a speech by Sir Richard Doll. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Robin Weiss and Julian Peto | ||
| Disputed risk of passive smoking. The Times 62501 (5 July 1986), 7. | ||
| The Times misunderstands the significance of the forthcoming study. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| P. N. Lee, J. Chamberlain and M. R. Alderson, Relationship of passive smoking to risk of lung cancer and other smoking-associated diseases, British Journal of Cancer 54/1 (July 1986), 97-105. | ||
| A study showing no significant risk of lung cancer from a spouse’s smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: abc71d00 | Offsite (£) |
| Robin Weiss to Michael Brown MP, 18 July 1986 | ||
| The Early Day motion is inaccurate and should be withdrawn. | ||
| Archive | tid: ole32e00 | |
| Michael Brown MP to Robin Weiss, 25 July 1986 | ||
| The motion is well-founded and Brown has no intention of obliging. | ||
| Archive | tid: ple32e00 | |
| Ray Thornton to Brian Simpson, 1 August 1986 | ||
| Simpson was unwise to use the leak at the point when he did. | ||
| Archive | tid: wwh00a99 | |
| Peter Lee, Draft letter to The Times, 9 July 1986 | ||
| Weiss and Peto make misleading reference to an alleged dose-response relationship for which there is no evidence. | ||
| Archive | tid: lgg66a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 18 July 1986 | ||
| Plans for another meeting with Sheehy. Draft of Lee’s paper enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: qoq40a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 30 July 1986 | ||
| The Sheehy meeting and a holiday in Spain. Who leaked Lee? | ||
| Archive | tid: auk85a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 28 August 1986 | ||
| The source of the leak unknown. Another confidential draft of Lee’s next paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: ytk85a99 | |
Thornton in Canada
| Ray Thornton, Visit to Professor T. D. Sterling Vancouver, B.C. – August 11th, 1986 | ||
| Sterling is a conceited but entertaining character who charges money for his opinions. | ||
| Archive | tid: szd66a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 28 August 1986 | ||
| Thornton will have some Ted Sterling anecdotes for Burch when they meet. | ||
| Archive | tid: ytk85a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 5 September 1986 | ||
| Burch enjoys Sterling’s company although they seldom agree. | ||
| Archive | tid: xtk85a99 | |
Lee purged
| J. Peto and R. Doll, Passive smoking, British Journal of Cancer 54/3 (September 1986), 381-3. | ||
| A guest editorial denouncing the Times report and disputing Lee’s conclusions. | ||
| Archive | tid: tnj70g00 | Offsite (£) |
| Peter Lee to Julian Peto, 27 August 1986 | ||
| Lee feels that the guest editorial misrepresents him and would like a discussion of the matter. | ||
| Archive | tid: mej66a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Philip Burch, 28 August 1986 | ||
| A confidential draft of Lee’s next paper enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: ytk85a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 5 September 1986 | ||
| Comments on Lee’s draft paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: xtk85a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 7 October 1986 | ||
| Burch is enjoying the affair and looking forward to the next phase. | ||
| Archive | tid: wim07a9/. | |
| P. N. Lee, Passive smoking. British Journal of Cancer 54/6 (December 1986), 1019-20. | ||
| The guest editorial misrepresents Lee’s study. | ||
| Archive | tid: fqw42d00 | Offsite (£) |
| J. Peto and R. Doll, Passive smoking. British Journal of Cancer 54/6 (December 1986), 1020-1. | ||
| The guest editorial concerned misrepresentations in The Times. | ||
| Archive | tid: fqw42d00 | Offsite (£) |
| R. E. Thornton, Note for Mr. P. Sheehy, Chairman, BAT Industries. Passive Smoking. | ||
| A condensed timeline of the affair so far. | ||
| Archive | tid: cqj00a99 | |
| Nicholas Wald to Peter Lee, 3 November 1986 | ||
| Wald’s paper, including a rebuttal of Lee’s work shown him in confidence, is about to be published. | ||
| Archive | tid: vtc00a99 | |
| Peter Lee to Richard Smith, 5 November 1986 | ||
| Lee’s paper submitted: the urgency of publishing it. | ||
| Archive | tid: ktc00a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 13 November 1986 | ||
| A draft paper enclosed. Lee must reply to Peto. | ||
| Archive | tid: xaq62a99 | |
| Peter Lee to Philip Burch, 20 November 1986 | ||
| Lee is discovering the difficulty of publishing non-establishment views. | ||
| Archive | tid: xaq62a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 26 November 1986 | ||
| The BMJ has treated Lee outrageously but he must persevere. | ||
| Archive | tid: waq62a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 7 October 1986 | ||
| Burch is enjoying the affair immensely. | ||
| Archive | tid: wim07a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 19 December 1986 | ||
| Burch pleased to see Lee given space in the BMJ. | ||
| Archive | tid: klg42a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 6 January 1987 | ||
| Advice on getting the paper into print. | ||
| Archive | tid: zuw82a99 | |
| Michael Moore to Peter Lee, 17 October 1986 | ||
| Lee’s submission to the British Journal of Cancer has been received. | ||
| Archive | tid: qtc00a99 | |
| Nicholas J. Wald, Kiran Nanchahal, Simon G. Thompson and Howard S. Cuckle, Does breathing other people’s tobacco smoke cause lung cancer? British Medical Journal 293/6556 (8 November 1986), 1217-1222. | ||
| A reanalysis of existing studies shows the harmfulness of passive smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: eyo34e00 | Offsite (free) |
| P. Sherwood Burge and A. S. Robertson, Does breathing other people’s tobacco smoke cause lung cancer? British Medical Journal 293/6560 (6 December 1986), 1503. | ||
| Passive smoking in the workplace outweighs spouses’ smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: pvx23e00 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Does breathing other people’s tobacco smoke cause lung cancer? British Medical Journal 293/6560 (6 December 1986), 1503. | ||
| Whitehall and MRFIT show that correlation is not causation. | ||
| Archive | tid: pvx23e00 | Offsite (£) |
| Peter N. Lee, Does breathing other people’s tobacco smoke cause lung cancer? British Medical Journal 293/6560 (6 December 1986), 1503-4. | ||
| A concise presentation of some further findings on passive smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: pvx23e00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. N. Lee, Passive smoking and lung cancer association: a result of bias? Human Toxicology 6 (1987), 517-524. | ||
| The further findings in full. | ||
| Archive | tid: tia87a99 | Offsite ($) |
Part 7: Last Words
Tribute to Eysenck
| Philip Burch, Smoking and health, in S. Modgil and C. Modgil (eds.), Hans Eysenck, Consensus and Controversy (Philadelphia and London 1986), 317-334 and 336-337. | ||
|
Popperian scientists including Eysenck and Burch have rejected the causal interpretation of smoking and lung cancer. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 30 July 1986 | ||
| Burch recommends the Modgil book. | ||
| Archive | tid: auk85a99 | |
Resolution of the American Society for Cancer Research
| Lawrence A. Loeb, Virginia L. Ernster, Kenneth E. Warner, John Abbotts and John Laszlo, Smoking and lung cancer: an overview, Cancer Research 44/12/1 (December 1984), 5940-5958. | ||
| Smoking identified as the main cause of lung cancer. A resolution of the American Association for Cancer Research on the need for drastic action. | ||
| Archive | tid: wvl43f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Correspondence re: Laurence A Loeb et al, Smoking and Lung Cancer – An Overiew. Cancer Research, 46/6 (June 1986), 3200-3201. | ||
| On MRFIT, Whitehall and some anomalies in Loeb’s data. | ||
| Archive | tid: gqk8aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| J. Abbotts and L. A. Loeb, Reply 1, Cancer Research 46/6 (June 1986), 3201-2. | ||
| MRFIT shows the dangers of smoking if the randomisation is ignored. | ||
| Archive | tid: gqk8aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| V. L. Ernster, Reply 2, Cancer Research 46/6 (June 1986), 3202-3. | ||
| MRFIT shows the dangers of smoking if the randomisation is ignored. | ||
| Archive | tid: gqk8aa00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 30 October 1985 | ||
| A pity that Hickey’s submission was not accepted. The politicisation of science. | ||
| Archive | tid: hrk8aa00 | |
| Philip Burch to Richard Hickey, 5 March 1986 | ||
| Caustic comment on the replies to his letter. | ||
| Archive | tid: ewp07c00 | |
The Ghost of Yerushalmy
| J.W. Donovan, Randomised controlled trial of anti-smoking advice in pregnancy, British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine 31/1 (March 1977), 6-12. | ||
| A randomised, controlled trial fails to show any effect from smoking in pregnancy. | ||
| Archive | tid: ngk72f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Harvey Goldstein, Smoking in pregnancy: some notes on the statistical controversy, British Journal of Preventive and Social Medicine 1977 31/1 (March 1977), 13-17. | ||
| Arguments in favour of the causal hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | coa05c00 | Offsite (free) |
| Mary Sexton and J. Richard Hebel, A clinical trial of change in maternal smoking and its effect on birth weight, Journal of the American Medical Association 251/7 (17 February 1984), 911-5. | ||
| A randomised, controlled, prospective trial shows some effect from smoking in pregnancy. | ||
| Archive | tid: cwg66a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Richard H. Aubry, Maternal smoking and perinatal health, Journal of the American Medical Association 251/7 (17 February 1984), 935. | ||
| Sexton and Hebel have demonstrated the harmful effects of smoking in pregnancy. | ||
| Archive | tid: cwg66a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Stuart M. Berman, Carol J. R. Hogue and James S. Marks, Maternal cigarette smoking: effect on infant birth weight, Journal of the American Medical Association 253/10 (8 March 1985), 1391-2. | ||
| Some issues to be resolved before Yerushalmy’s genetic hypothesis is refuted. | ||
| Archive | tid: uox62f00 | Offsite ($) |
| Mary Sexton and J. Richard Hebel, In Reply, Journal of the American Medical Association 253/10 (8 March 1985), 1392. | ||
| A discussion of the above issues. | ||
| Archive | tid: uox62f00 | Offsite ($) |
| Philip R. J. Burch and M. Susan Chesters, Maternal cigarette smoking and the ghost of Yerushalmy – will it ever rest? Journal of the American Medical Association 255/8 (28 February 1986), 1019. | ||
| Reasons to question the conclusions of the Sexton study. | ||
| Archive | tid: iqk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| Mary Sexton and J. Richard Hebel, In Reply. Journal of the American Medical Association 255/8 (28 February 1986), 1019. | ||
| A consideration of the above reasons. | ||
| Archive | tid: iqk8aa00 | Offsite ($) |
Period and cohort trends in mortality from cancers of the uterus
| P. R. J. Burch, Period and cohort trends in mortality from cancers of the uterus in England and Wales. A new theory of changing gene frequencies, Medical Hypotheses 20/1 (May 1986), 53-63. | ||
| Changing rates of cancer of the uterus analysed by age and generation reveal changing gene frequencies in the population. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
National trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease: implications for prevention
| Thomas J. Thom, Frederick H. Epstein, Jacob J. Feldman and Paul E. Leaverton, Trends in total mortality and mortality from heart disease in different countries, International Journal of Epidemiology 14/4 (1985), 510-520. | ||
| A report on rates of heart disease in men and women in 26 countries. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
| A. G. Shaper, National trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease: implications for prevention, The Lancet 327/8484 (5 April 1986), 795. | ||
| Thom’s paper shows the need for draconian action against smoking and cholesterol. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| Alexander MacNair, National trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease: implications for prevention, The Lancet 327/8487 (26 April 1986), 981-2. | ||
| Shaper ignores the most salient feature of Thom’s data. | ||
| Archive | tid: ryc36a99 | Offsite (£) |
| M. F. Oliver, National trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease: implications for prevention, The Lancet 327/8487 (26 April 1986), 981-2. | ||
| Shaper ignores the most salient feature of Thom’s data. | ||
| Archive | tid: ryc36a99 | Offsite (£) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, National trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease: implications for prevention, The Lancet 327/8140 (17 May 1986), 1155. | ||
| Shaper mistakes the diagnostic categories used in Thom’s paper. | ||
| Archive | tid: cvz26a99 | Offsite (£) |
The Big Kill
| John L. Roberts and Paul A. Graveling, The Big Kill: Smoking Epidemic in England and Wales (Manchester, 1985). | ||
| The alleged death toll from smoking in England and Wales broken down by locality. | ||
| Archive | tid: hjv97h99 | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Can epidemiology become a rigorous science? How big is the Big Kill? IRCS Medical Science 14 (1986), 956-961. | ||
| The absurd precision of the death toll specified in the study demonstrates the weakness of risk factor epidemiology. | ||
| Archive | tid: luz50f00 | |
| P. N. Lee, “Can epidemiology become a rigorous science? How big is the Big Kill?” Some comments on the paper by Philip Burch | ||
| Archive | tid: xuw82a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 6 January 1987 | ||
| Burch’s reply to Lee’s comments. | ||
| Archive | tid: zuw82a99 | |
Approach to Nigel Lawson
| Philip Burch to Nigel Lawson, 6 November 1986 | ||
| A suggested spending cut: axe the Health Education Council. An offprint of Burch’s Big Kill paper enclosed. | ||
| Archive | tid: jgl71a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 19 December 1986 | ||
| The Health Education Council really has been axed. | ||
| Archive | tid: klg42a99 | |
| K. James to Philip Burch, 4 February 1987 | ||
| An official defence of The Big Kill. | ||
| Archive | tid: kgl71a99 | |
| Philip Burch to K. James, 12 February 1987 | ||
| Reply to James’s arguments. | ||
| Archive | tid: lgl71a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Nigel Lawson, 13 February 1987 | ||
| The James correspondence forwarded. | ||
| Archive | tid: igl71a99 | |
| Peter Lee to Philip Burch, 20 November 1986 | ||
| Lee partly agrees with Burch on The Big Kill, partly not. | ||
| Archive | tid: xaq62a99 | |
| Philip Burch to Peter Lee, 26 November 1986 | ||
| Informed criticism is more than welcome. | ||
| Archive | tid: waq62a99 | |
1987
Whither preventive medicine?
| Philip R. J. Burch, Whither preventive medicine? Journal of Chronic Diseases 40/7 (1987), 737-739. | ||
| Deficiencies of risk-factor epidemiology and the preventive medicine based on it. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
Period and cohort trends for mortality and cigarette consumption
| P. R. J. Burch, Period and cohort trends for mortality and cigarette consumption in England and Wales, 1946 to 1980, with emphasis on sex ratios, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 41/4 (1988), 373-384. | ||
| The last of the major papers on lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: qpb50a99 | Offsite ($) |
| P. N. Lee, “Period and cohort trends for mortality and cigarette consumption in England and Wales, 1946 to 1980, with emphasis on sex ratios” P. R. J. Burch | ||
| Burch successfully shows that the contribution of smoking to the overall death rate is less than generally supposed. | ||
| Archive | tid: mnz35a99 | |
Illness and death
| Philip Burch to Ray Thornton, 25 February 1987 | ||
| James has fallen silent. Burch is to have a cancer operation but is optimistic about his chances. | ||
| Archive | tid: clg42a99 | |
| Jane Burch to Ray Thornton, 25 March 1987 | ||
| Burch did not recover from the operation and has now died. | ||
| Archive | tid: vmb08h99 | |
Afterwards
Jane Burch
| Obituary: Jane Burch | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
The selected papers
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 16 July 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: mkg42a99 | |
| R. E. Thornton, Note on a visit to Mrs J Burch, Leeds – August 13 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: tpb50a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 18 August 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: jkg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 23 September 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: fkg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 6 October 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: ekg42a99 | |
| Jane Burch to Ray Thornton, 13 October 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: dkg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 19 October 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: ckg42a99 | |
| Jane Burch to Ray Thornton, 14 December 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: akg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 18 December 1987 | ||
| Archive | tid: wjg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 11 February 1988 | ||
| Archive | tid: pjg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Eric Bruell, 25 February 1988 | ||
| Archive | tid: qjg42a99 | |
| Jane Burch to Ray Thornton, 4 April 1988 | ||
| Archive | tid: mjg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 19 September 1988 | ||
| Archive | tid: njg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 12 October 1988 | ||
| Archive | tid: ljg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 31 January 1989 | ||
| Archive | tid: bjg42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 3 April 1989 | ||
| Archive | tid: xig42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 9 May 1989 | ||
| Archive | tid: wig42a99 | |
| Jane Burch to Ray Thornton, 14 July 1989 | ||
| Archive | tid: sig42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 26 July 1989 | ||
| Archive | tid: rig42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to B. D. Bramley, 6 October 1989 | ||
| Archive | tid: nig42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 3 January 1990 | ||
| Archive | tid: hig42a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 24 January 1990 | ||
| Archive | tid: zhg42a99 | |
| Jane Burch to Ray Thornton, 14 July 1992 | ||
| Archive | tid: mgr52a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 20 July 1992 | ||
| Archive | tid: lgr52a99 | |
| Ray Thornton to Jane Burch, 13 October 1992 | ||
| Archive | tid: lkn00a99 | |
Lawfare
Kenneth MacRae
| Kenneth David MacRae, British Medical Journal 324/7344 (27 April 2002), 1041. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (£) | |
| K. D. MacRae, What epidemiological studies can tell us, Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology 4 Suppl 2 (1984), 579-587. | ||
| Archive | tid: gkv18c00 | Offsite (£) |
| Kenneth Duncan MacRae, Statement of Kenneth Duncan Macrae, M.A., Ph. D. (Aberd.), F.I.S, 20 May 1991 | ||
| Archive | tid: ajt19e00 | |
| Curriculum Vitae, Kenneth Duncan Macrae, M.A., Ph. D. (Aberd.), F.I.S | ||
| Archive | tid: bjt19e00 | |
McTear
Sir Richard Doll at the close of his system
| Opinion of Lord Nimmo Smith in the cause Mrs Margaret McTear pursuer against Imperial Tobacco Limited defenders | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
The Essence of Burch
Burch on Cancer is mainly based on The Biology of Cancer and Pathology, inference and carcinogenesis. Burch on Lung Cancer is based on chapter 9 of The Biology of Cancer and the many other expositions of his ideas listed below. Burch on Heart Disease is based on his two papers Coronary Heart Disease: Risk Factors and Ageing (published in Epidemiology) and Ischaemic heart disease: epidemiology, risk factors and cause (published in Cardiovascular Research). Burch on Doll is mainly based on Burch’s reply to Joy Townsend at the Royal Statistical Society in Smoking and Lung Cancer: the Problem of Inferring Cause. The mathematical expression showing Doll’s power law to be an approximation to a Weibull distribution is in Pike and Doll, Age at Onset of Lung Cancer.
Appendices
Sir Richard Doll in context
Conrad Keating, Smoking Kills (Oxford, 2009).
Joan Fisher Box, R. A. Fisher, the life of a scientist (New York, 1978).
W. D. Hamilton on smoking
W. D. Hamilton, Narrow Roads of Geneland, The Collected Papers of W. D. Hamilton volume 2 Evolution of Sex (Oxford 2001), 103-7 and 337
General
Autoaggressive disease
| P. R. J. Burch, What limits the lifespan? in B. Benjamin, P.R. Cox and J. Peel (eds.) Population and the New Biology (London and New York, 1974), 31-56. | ||
| The main barrier to longer lifespans is now degenerative and malignant disease, and victory is not assured. | ||
| Archive | tid: rqk30g00 | |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Pathology, inference and carcinogenesis, in S C Sommers and P P Rosen (eds.), Pathology Annual 15/2 (New York, 1980), 21-44. | ||
| An exposition of Burch’s general theory of autoaggressive disease for a medical readership. | ||
| Archive | tid: hdl59d00 | |
Lung cancer
Accessible
New Scientist exchange
| Philip Burch, Does Smoking cause lung cancer? New Scientist 61/886 (21 February 1974), 458-63. | ||
| Burch’s case expounded for a general audience. | ||
| Archive | tid: yze32a99 | Offsite (free) |
| Richard Doll, Smoking, lung cancer and Occam’s razor, New Scientist 61/886 (21 February 1974), 463-7. | ||
| Five points in Burch’s argument disputed and orthodoxy restated. | ||
| Archive | tid: yml94f00 | Offsite (free) |
| Philip Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: Burch’s reply, New Scientist 61/887 (28 February 1974), 559-560. | ||
| The five points considered and Doll’s arguments rejected. | ||
| Archive | tid: qau88e00 | Offsite (free) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: a causal connexion? in Verband der Zigarettenindustrie (ed.), Rauchen im wissenschaftlichen Meinungsstreit. Internationales Symposion, April 29-30 1976 (Ruschlikon/Zurich, 1977) | ||
| The text of a conference paper delivered in Zurich in 1976. A very accessible account of Burch’s ideas on smoking and lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: vua66b00 | |
Technical
| P. R. J. Burch, The Biology of Cancer: A New Approach (Lancaster, 1976) | ||
| Burch’s general theory of cancer as autoaggressive disease. | ||
| tid: msd91f00 | Archive | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Lung cancer and cigarette smoking, secular trends. | ||
| Draft of a paper to be offered to Nature. | ||
| Archive | tid: znz88b00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: the problem of inferring cause (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 141 (1978), 437-477. | ||
| A major paper on smoking and lung cancer read to the Royal Statistical Society with the subsequent discussion. | ||
| Archive | tid: aal39d00 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Problems in the interpretation of cancer statistics with special reference to lung cancer, Journal of the Society of Occupational Medicine 25 (1975), 2-10. | ||
| Burch’s first presentation of his ideas in a scientific journal. | ||
| Archive | tid: wgz88b00 | Offsite (£) |
Lancet exchange
Precipitator
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and lung cancer: tests of a causal hypothesis, Journal of Chronic Diseases 33/4 (1980), 221-238. | ||
| The first of the papers on the Precipitator hypothesis about smoking and lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: xof50d00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and mortality in England and Wales 1950 to 1976, Journal of Chronic Diseases 34/2-3 (1981), 87-103. | ||
| The second of the major papers on the Precipitator hypothesis | ||
| Archive | tid: iuw2aa00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking, lung cancer and hypothesis testing, Medical Hypotheses 7/12 (December 1981), 1461-1470. | ||
| The third of Burch’s major papers on the Precipitator hypothesis. | ||
| Archive | tid: vbg65b00 | Offsite (£) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Period and cohort trends for mortality and cigarette consumption in England and Wales, 1946 to 1980, with emphasis on sex ratios, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 41/4 (1988), 373-384. | ||
| The last of the major papers on lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: qpb50a99 | Offsite ($) |
Polemical
The Lilienfeld exchange
| P. R. J. Burch, The Surgeon General’s “epidemiologic criteria for causality”. A critique, Journal of Chronic Diseases 36/12 (1983), 821-836. | ||
| The Surgeon General’s report appeal to five criteria for establishing the causal role of smoking in disease. They are poor scientific methodology and do not prove what is claimed. | ||
| Archive | tid: hms61f00 | Offsite ($) |
| Abraham M. Lilienfeld, The Surgeon General’s “epidemiologic criteria for causality”: a criticism of Burch’s critique, Journal of Chronic Diseases 36/12 (1983), 837-845. | ||
| A defence of the five criteria and the Surgeon General’s conclusions. | ||
| Archive | tid: lyh05c00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, The Surgeon General’s “epidemiologic criteria for causality”. Reply to Lilienfeld, Journal of Chronic Diseases 37/2 (1984), 148-156. | ||
| The case against the Surgeon General’s methodology restated. | ||
| Archive | tid: gms61f00 | Offsite ($) |
| Arnold E. Reif, Effect of cigarette smoking on susceptibility to lung cancer, Oncology 38/2 (1981), 76-85. | ||
| Arguments against the constitutional hypotheses of Fisher and Burch. A hypothetical mechanism whereby smoking causes lung cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: whz92f00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and lung cancer: a continuing controversy, Medical Hypotheses 9/3 (September 1982), 293-306. | ||
| Reif’s facts do not prove what he wants them to. The constitutional hypothesis still stands. | ||
| Archive | tid: dzb43f00 | Offsite (£) |
Unpublished
| H. Goldstein and K. Horsfield, Appendix to chapter 4 The statistical controversy on the relation between smoking and lung cancer | ||
| Draft of a critique of Burch proposed for inclusion in the report. | ||
| Archive | tid: gbp72a99 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Criticisms by P. R. J. Burch of the second draft of appendix to chapter 4 by H. Goldstein and K. Horsfield | ||
| Burch’s reply to the critique. | ||
| Archive | tid: ajb45d00 | |
| Submission to the Hunter Committee | ||
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and cancer, criticisms by Professor P. R. J. Burch of the Hunter Committee report to the Minister of State (Health) | ||
| Rebuttal of a report rejecting Burch’s views. | ||
| Archive | tid: ljb45d00 | |
| Comments on the OTA report | ||
| The Health Program, Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Smoking-related deaths and financial costs. | ||
| An American government report on the alleged financial costs of smoking. | ||
| tid: rlu42e00 | Archive | |
| Philip Burch to Karl Kronebusch, 29 May 1985 | ||
| Scathing criticisms of the report. | ||
| Archive | tid: bkm07a99 | |
| P. R. J. Burch, The analysis of cancer statistics with special reference to cigarette smoking and lung cancer. Non-mathematical synopsis. | ||
| A summary of Burch’s views written for Todd and Roe. | ||
| Archive | tid: mlg42a99 | |
| Fletcher exchange | ||
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 29 June 1976 | ||
| Discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: fov32d00 | |
| Charles Fletcher to Philip Burch, 6 July 1976 | ||
| Discussion of the draft report. | ||
| tid: zib45d00 | Archive | |
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 19 July 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: bey38e00 | |
| Charles Fletcher to Philip Burch, 30 July 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: wib45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 5 August 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. | ||
| Archive | tid: xib45d00 | |
| Charles Fletcher to Philip Burch, 15 September 1976 | ||
| Further discussion of the draft report. Fletcher’s impatience with Burch. | ||
| Archive | tid: qib45d00 | |
| Philip Burch to Charles Fletcher, 29 September 1976 | ||
| Burch’s determination to subject the causal theory to the falsificationist method. | ||
| Archive | tid: rib45d00 | |
Coronary heart disease
| Coronary heart disease | ||
| Philip R. J.Burch, Coronary heart disease. Tests of etiological hypotheses, American Heart Journal 93/6 (June 1977), 805-806. | ||
| Is the association of smoking with coronary heart disease a causal one? Some possible tests. | ||
| Archive | tid: kdb62f00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J Burch, Coronary heart disease: risk factors and ageing, Gerontology 24 (1978), 123-155. | ||
| The first of Burch’s two major papers on coronary heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: kie20a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Philip R. J. Burch, Ischaemic heart disease: epidemiology, risk factors and cause, Cardiovascular Research 14/6 (1 June 1980), 307-338. | ||
| The second of the major papers on ischaemic (coronary) heart disease. | ||
| Archive | tid: hkw02i00 | Offsite ($) |
| P. R. J. Burch, Smoking and coronary disease, American Heart Journal 100/4 (October 1980), 421-423. | ||
| Editorial on the role of randomised prospective studies and twins studies in investigating causation. | ||
| Archive | tid: ngz88b00 | Offsite (free) |
| Exchange with Tweed | ||
| W.A. Tweed, Does cigarette smoking cause coronary heart disease? Canadian Medical Association Journal 126/2 (15 January 1982), 102-7. | ||
| Friedman’s Kaiser Permanente study demonstrates that smoking causes CHD. The arguments of Burch and Seltzer dismissed. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| P. R. J. Burch, Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease, Canadian Medical Association Journal 127/2 (15 July 1982), 107. | ||
| Burch’s papers in Gerontology and Cardiovascular Research suggest that the risk factors for CHD are not causal. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
| W.A. Tweed, Cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease, Canadian Medical Association Journal 127/2 (15 July 1982), 107-8. | ||
| Burch’s arguments dismissed. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite (free) | |
Other
| P. R. J. Burch, Esophageal cancer in relation to cigarette and alcohol consumption, Journal of Chronic Diseases 37/11 (1984), 793-808. | ||
| A major paper applying Burch’s approach to epidemiology to esophageal cancer. | ||
| Archive | tid: rkm07a99 | Offsite ($) |
Doll’s mathematics
| Richard Doll and Richard Peto, Mortality in relation to smoking: 20 years observations on male British doctors. British Medical Journal 2/6051 (25 December, 1976) 1525-36 | ||
| The case against smoking is confirmed by new data from the Doctors’ study. | ||
| Archive | tid: jbk92f00 | Offsite (free) |
| M. C. Pike and Richard Doll, Age at onset of lung cancer: significance in relation to effect of smoking, The Lancet, 285/7387 (27 March 1965) 665-668. | ||
| A reply to Passey | ||
| Archive | tid: oye82a99 | Offsite (£) |
Prospective studies
The British doctors’ study |
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| Richard Doll and A. Bradford Hill, Lung cancer and other causes of death in relations to smoking. A second report on the mortality of British doctors, British Medical Journal 2/5001 (10 November 1956), 1071-1081. | ||
| Archive | tid: prd02b00 | Offsite (£) |
| Richard Doll and Austin Bradford Hill, Mortality in relation to smoking: ten years’ observations of British doctors. Part I, British Medical Journal 1/5395 (30 May 1964), 1399-1410. | ||
| Archive | tid: zok45c00 | Offsite (free) |
| Richard Doll and Austin Bradford Hill, Mortality in relation to smoking: ten years’ observations of British doctors. Concluded, British Medical Journal 1/5396 (June 6 1964), 1460-1467 | ||
| Archive | tid: iug21a00 | Offsite (free) |
| Richard Doll and Richard Peto, Mortality in relation to smoking: 20 years’ observations on male British doctors, British Medical Journal 2/6051 (December 25 1976), 1525-1536. | ||
| Archive | tid: jbk92f00 | Offsite (free) |
The American Cancer Society 25-state study |
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| E. Cuyler Hammond, Smoking in relation to the death rates of one million men and women, in W. Haensel (ed.) Epidemiological Approaches to the Study of Cancer and Other Chronic Diseases, National Cancer Institute Monograph 19, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, U.S. Public Health Service, National Cancer Institute (January 1966), 127-204. | ||
| Archive | tid: ftj92f00 | |
The US veterans study |
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| H.A. Kahn, The Dorn study of smoking and mortality among U.S. veterans: report on 8 1/2 years of observation, in W. Haensel (ed.), Epidemiological Approaches to the Study of Cancer and Other Chronic Diseases, National Cancer Institute Monograph 19, U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare, U.S. Public Health Service, National Cancer Institute (January 1966), pp 1-125 | ||
| Archive | tid: owl96a00 | |
The Japanese study of 29 health districts |
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| T. Hirayama, Smoking in relation to the death rates of 265,118 men and women in Japan, Tokyo, National Cancer Center, Research Institute, Epidemiology Division (September 1967). | ||
| Archive | tid: hnm82a99 | |
| T Hirayama, Smoking in relation to the death rates of 265,118 men and women in Japan. A report on 5 years of follow-up, Presented at the American Cancer Society’s 14th Science Writers’ Seminar, Clearwater Beach, Florida, March 24-29, 1972. | ||
| Archive | tid: mxy68d00 | |
The Canadian veterans study |
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| E.W.R. Best, G.H. Josie and C.B. Walker, A Canadian study of mortality in relation to smoking habits: A preliminary report, Canadian Journal of Public Health 52 (March 1961), 99-106. | ||
| Archive | tid: uyl96a00 | |
The American Cancer Society 9-state study |
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| E.C .Hammond and D. Horn, Smoking and death rates – Report on forty-four months of follow-up on 187,783 men. I Total mortality, Journal of the American Medical Association 166/10 (8 March 1958), 1159-1172. | ||
| Archive | tid: ean26a99 | Offsite ($) |
California men in various occupations |
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| J.E. Dunn, G. Linden and L. Breslow, Lung cancer mortality experience of men in certain occupations in California, American Journal of Public Health 50/10 (October 1960), 1475-87. | ||
| Archive | tid: rug38c00 | |
The Swedish study |
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| R. Cederlof, L. Friberg, Z. Hrubec and U. Lorich, The Relationship of Smoking and Some Social Covariables to Mortality and Cancer Morbidity. A Ten Year Follow-up in a Probability Sample of 55,000 Swedish Subjects Age 18 to 69. Part I and II (Stockholm, Karolinska Institute, Department of Environmental Hygiene, 1975). | ||
| Archive | tid: eqh81f00 | |
Reports
RCP
| Smoking and Health. A Report of the Royal College of Physicians of London on Smoking in relation to Cancer of the Lung and Other Diseases (London, 1962). | ||
| Archive | tid: wjv02i00 | |
| Smoking and Health Now. A Report of the Royal College of Physicians (London, 1971). | ||
| Archive | tid: qgv02i00 | |
| Smoking or Health. The Third Report from the Royal College of Physicians of London (London, 1977). | ||
| Archive | tid: mrt02i00 | |
| Health or Smoking. The Fourth Report from the Royal College of Physicians of London (London, 1983). | ||
| Archive | tid: mzr02i00 | |
Surgeon general
1964 |
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| Smoking and Health: Report of the Advisory Committee of the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service | ||
| Archive | tid: emw34j00 | |
| Cigarette smoking and health characteristics | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
1979 |
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| Archive | tid: jts10j00 | |
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
Randomised prospective studies
Rose |
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| Geoffrey Rose and P.J.S. Hamilton, A randomised controlled trial of the effect on middle-aged men of advice to stop smoking Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 32/4 (December 1978), 275-281. | ||
| Archive | tid: ziv05a99 | Offsite (free) |
Oslo |
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| I. Hjermann, I. Holme, K. Velve Byre and P. Leren, Effect of diet and smoking intervention on the incidence of coronary heart disease, The Lancet 315/8258 (12 December 1981), 1303-10. | ||
| The Oslo study. A randomised, prospective study showed no effect on health from a changed diet and giving up smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: tvi97e00/pdf | Offsite (£) |
MRFIT |
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| Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial Research Group, Multiple risk factor intervention trial. Risk factor changes and mortality results, Journal of the American Medical Association 248/12 (24 September 1982), 1465-77. | ||
| The MRFIT study. A randomised, prospective study showed no effect on health from a changed lifestyle which including giving up smoking. | ||
| Archive | tid: mfg74b00 | Offsite ($) |
Goteborg |
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| L. Wilhelmsen, G. Berglund, D. Elmfeldt, G. Tibblin, H. Wedel, K. Pennert, A. Vedin, C. Wilhelmssen and L. Werkö, The multifactor primary prevention trial in Göteborg, Sweden, European Heart Journal. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
European multifactorial trial |
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| The European Society of Cardiology, Multifactorial trial in the prevention of coronary heart disease: 3. Incidence and mortality results, European Heart Journal 1983 | ||
| The Lancet 1986 Apr 19 (327 8486):869-72. | ||
| Archive | tid: eyp71d00 | Offsite (£) |
| European collaborative trial of multifactorial prevention of coronary heart disease: final report on the 6-year results. World Health Organisation European Collaborative Group. | ||
| Annals of Medicine 24 (2), 1992 | ||
| Tatu A. Miettinen & Timo E. Strandberg, Implications of Recent Results of Long Term Multifactorial Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
Twins studies
Cederlof |
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| Birgitta Floderus, Rune Cederlof and Lars Friberg, Smoking and Mortality: a 21-year follow-up based on the Swedish Twin Registry, International Journal of Epidemiology 17/2 (1988), 322-340 | ||
| Archive | tid: deb30a99 | |
| Jaako Caprio and Markku Koskenvuo, Twins, smoking and mortality: a 12-year prospective study of smoking-discordant twin pairs, Social Science and Medicine 29/9 (1989), 1038-1089 | ||
| Archive | tid: aey93d00 | |
| Rune Cederlof, Lars Friberg and Zdenec Hrubec, Cardiovascular and respiratory symptoms in relation to tobacco smoking, a study on American twins, Archives of Environmental Health (18 June 1969), 934-938 | ||
| Archive | tid: gky16a99 | |
Carmelli |
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| Dorit Carmelli, Gary E Swan, Dennis Robinette and Richard Babsitz, Genetic influences on smoking – a study of male twins, New England Journal of Medicine 327/12 (17 September 1992), 829-833. | ||
| Archive | tid: ocq47h00 | Offsite (free) |
| Dorit Carmelli and William F. Page, Twenty-four year mortality in world war II US male veteran twins discordant for cigarette smoking, International Journal of Epidemiology 25/ 3 (1996), 554-559. | ||
| Not in archive | ||
Sceptics
| Ronald A. Fisher, Smoking, the cancer controversy : some attempts to assess the evidence (Edinburgh, 1959). | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite | |
| Jerzy Neyman, Statistics – servant of all science, Science 122/3166 (2 September 1955), 401-16. | ||
| Archive | tid: jrw13a00 | Offsite ($) |
| Joseph Berkson, Smoking and cancer of the lung, Proceedings of the Staff Meetings of the Mayo Clinic 35 (1960), 367-85. | ||
| Archive | tid: feq86a00 | |
| K.A. Brownlee, A review of “Smoking and Health”, Journal of the American Statistical Association 60/311 (September 1965), 722-739. | ||
| Not in archive | Offsite ($) | |
| R.D. Passey, Some problems of lung cancer, The Lancet 280/7247 (21 July 1962), 107-112. | ||
| Archive | tid: asd34a99 | Offsite (£) |
| Eysenck, Smoking, Health and Personality | ||
| Archive | tid: udh29d00 | |